- Ukraine’s desire to join NATO has become a key focus for European and American foreign policies since the 2022 Russian invasion.
- Ukraine’s readiness for NATO membership depends on its success in implementing military and political reforms, including transitioning to a full NATO command structure and addressing corruption within its high command.
- The biggest hurdle for Ukraine’s NATO ascension is the clash between NATO’s defensive nature and Russia’s control of internationally-recognized Ukrainian territory, which raises concerns about potential escalation and nuclear war.
Since the start of Russia’s invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s overwhelming desire to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has evolved into a key focus for both European and American foreign policies. However, while the leaders of NATO agreed earlier this month that Ukraine’s NATO membership should be expedited, there has nevertheless been considerable debate over whether membership is realistic or even a desirable option.
Indeed, Ukraine’s readiness to become a NATO member is tied to two main factors: its success in implementing military and political reforms, and its ability to fully eject Russian forces from their internationally recognized territory.
In military terms, the Russia-Ukraine War has presented a mixed bag for Ukraine’s military capacity and its potential for integration into NATO’s command structures. On the one hand, the influx of NATO standard armaments, NATO training of Ukrainian soldiers, and large-scale logistic cooperation between NATO and Ukraine have strengthened interoperability which is essential to joining the alliance.
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These include the replacement of Ukraine’s old Soviet-era artillery with NATO standard 155 mm artillery weapons, the training of tankers to use German Leopard and British Challenger tanks, and the ongoing training of Ukrainian pilots to fly American F-16 fighter jets.
Despite these improvements, the war has also hamstrung these efforts. Complex weapons systems such as Western fighter jets are costly and will require several more years of training before they ever see combat. Additionally, Ukraine currently operates under a hybrid system of military organization, in which unit-level operational flexibility is combined with Soviet-style command and control at the strategic level.
Transitioning to a full NATO command structure will require jettisoning this Soviet mentality, which would be slow to implement and likely undermine its current war effort. Corruption also continues to plague Ukraine’s high command, and the potential for abuses and misappropriation of resources remains a significant hurdle.
However, the biggest hurdle for Ukraine’s ascension to NATO is the clash between NATO’s strategic objective and Russian control of internationally-recognized Ukrainian territory. NATO is structured as a defensive alliance, where Article 5 of its charter states that an attack on one state is an attack on all. In its current situation, Ukraine would likely invoke Article 5 if it joined the alliance, and thus pull NATO directly into military conflict with Russia.
This would back Russia into a military corner and dramatically increase the potential for nuclear war. This fact puts Ukraine in a Catch-22 situation; joining NATO would likely require a full Russian defeat, despite the fact that a full Russian defeat is only likely if Ukraine joins NATO.
Thus, while Ukraine may join NATO in the coming decades if it is ultimately able to push Russia out of its territory, it is unlikely to join the organization in 2023 or 2024. Furthermore, even if the war does end in total Ukrainian victory, it will likely take years more before Ukraine’s military structure has reformed enough for skeptical NATO members to support its membership bid. In the end, security assurances by the US and UK may be the best Ukraine can get.
