- Regional Power Dynamics: Saudi Arabia and Iran have historically been in competition for regional dominance. If the U.S. reduces its security commitments to Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom might feel threatened, possibly leading to increased tensions or proxy wars in the region.
- Economic Ties Beyond Oil: While oil has historically been a major component of the US-Saudi relationship, there are other economic ties, such as investments, technology transfers, and mutual interests in global financial markets. The Saudi Vision 2030 plan aims to diversify its economy away from oil. As Saudi Arabia pursues diversification, it may look to the U.S. for investments and expertise in areas like technology, entertainment, and tourism.
- Domestic Implications for Saudi Arabia: A more strained relationship with the U.S. might impact internal politics within Saudi Arabia. The monarchy’s legitimacy has been partly derived from its ability to secure U.S. support and provide economic prosperity for its citizens. If either of these is threatened, it could lead to domestic instability.
The long-established bilateral relationship between the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been a fundamental aspect of American foreign policy in the Middle East for many years.
However, the beginning of the Biden Administration has brought volatility to the dynamics of the multifaceted US-Saudi relations while President Biden’s approach towards Saudi Arabia is expected to be a more balanced approach between economic interests and human rights instead of the unconditional support provided by previous administrations.
It is important to examine the historical dynamics of the US-Saudi relationship in order to better assess its future course. Historically, the United States has sought a consistent and reliable source of oil supply to fuel its economic engine, while the Saudi Kingdom sought military equipment and security guarantees in a region with complex conflicts.
The security cooperation between the Saudi Kingdom and the United States will likely decrease in the upcoming years since the United States is no longer as dependent on Saudi oil as it used to be while the Saudis are less trusting of US promises.
Firstly, the United States has been actively aiming to diversify its energy sources while vigorously increasing its investments in renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydroelectric power. Moreover, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicates that the utilization of petroleum in the U.S. electric power sector has been steadily declining, further reducing the demand for oil. We could easily estimate and predict a less oil-dependent US economy in the upcoming years. Indeed, this will have crucial implications for the US-Saudi relations that have been historically rooted in oil exchange. While the US is no longer as dependent on Saudi oil, the security cooperation between the two states will likely be affected negatively.
Secondly, it is important to note that the Biden Administration’s foreign policy stance signifies the importance of human rights and democracy promotion in shaping international partnerships. Such an approach represents a change of policy from the unconditional support provided by previous administrations while it will push for prompting a recalibration of the US-Saudi relationships.
This commitment to human rights has been reflected in the reassessment of arms exports to the Saudi Kingdom for use in the Yemen conflict as well as the harsh criticism by the Biden Administration on the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. The security cooperation between the two states will likely decrease due to Biden’s critical stance on Saudi Arabia’s internal affairs along with a less oil-dependent US economy.
The possible decrease in security cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia will likely have crucial implications for the Middle East while paving the way for shifting alliances and new strategic partnerships. The volatility between the two states will likely prompt both nations to seek new strategic alliances to push for their national interests in the region.
Saudi Arabia, in particular, may seek to turn to other regional powers seeking to increase their influence in the region, such as Russia and China, for security collaboration.
With the US economy being less dependent on Saudi oil and the Biden Administration’s critical stance on Saudi Arabia’s internal affairs, it could be assessed that the relationship between the two nations will be negatively affected while such dynamics will likely decrease the security cooperation between the two countries resulting in a changing geopolitical environment in the Middle East.
