- The deteriorating security situation in Haiti could lead to foreign Intervention, a proliferation of illicit arms, and a refugee crisis.
- While proponents of intervention argue it will restore the political, social, and economic conditions in the country, others worry it will further destabilize the country
- As a result of the gang violence and political instability that targets citizens nationwide, many Haitians are facing displacement and seeking refuge abroad, mostly in the United States, putting a strain on an already backlogged US immigration system
In July 2021 President Jovenel Moïse of Haiti was assassinated, which resulted in a prolonged political crisis and a power vacuum that continues today. Since then, violent criminal gangs have seized power and wreaked havoc in the country. This has brought the country to a halt causing increased insecurity, and creating a humanitarian crisis.
The growing violence and instability in Haiti have led the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres to issue a call for humanitarian, security, and political action after a visit to the country in the summer of 2023. The continued deteriorating security situation could have devastating consequences for the country and the region including, but not limited to: 1) foreign intervention; 2) an increase in the illicit flow of weapons; and 3) a refugee crisis.
Foreign Intervention
The humanitarian emergency in Haiti continues to deteriorate amidst growing insecurity, which has led to calls for humanitarian intervention and even for an international armed force to restore “stability” in the country. While proponents of intervention argue it will restore the political, social, and economic conditions in the country, others worry it will further destabilize the country. Haiti’s history of decades of foreign intervention has led to reluctance and displeasure with the idea of foreign actors intervening in domestic affairs.
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An ill-executed intervention, specifically an international armed force, could have devastating consequences and there is a risk of further political divide and chaos. Further, outside intervention in Haiti would mark one of the most recent interventions in the region by foreign powers in recent history, putting Latin American and Caribbean countries on high alert about future interventions in the region by outside powers. However, support for intervention has increased in popularity, especially in gang-controlled areas due to the rise in insecurity.
Given the severity of the humanitarian emergency, international support needs to go beyond militarized solutions and focus on addressing the root causes of political instability. If a humanitarian mission is deployed it is necessary for it to have the popular backing of Haiti’s citizens and the support of Haiti’s political forces, to ensure the creation of a transitional government with legitimacy that could halt the violence and usher in a democratic transition.
Increase in the illicit flow of weapons
Over the last two years, gangs have exploited the power vacuum generated by the question of political succession to install themselves as the authority in key cities and now hold a firm grip on the country. The presence of armed gangs has negatively affected Haiti’s economy and businesses as gang activity has generated logistical and operational challenges, extortions threaten the livelihoods of the Haitian people, and gangs have taken over major ports, giving rise to the flow of illegal weapons.
In 2020, an estimated 270,000 illicit firearms circulated in the country, a number which has only increased since then. This increase in the illicit flow of weapons to Haiti is exacerbating the levels of insecurity in the country, while also affecting nearby countries, specifically the Dominican Republic, and contributing to the greater illegal flow of arms and ammunition in Latin America and the Caribbean. Further, the flow of illicit firearms and drugs is allowing criminal gangs to fuel violence and target ports and other critical infrastructure.
As a result, in June 2023, the United States established the Haiti Transnational Criminal Investigative Unit to lead investigations for firearms and trafficking. However, this only serves as a bandaid and not as a fix to the problem. If action is not taken to deal with the root of the gang violence and the political instability in Haiti, the country will continue to be an attractive hub for drug traffickers and arms dealers and a major transshipment point for guns and ammunition for the entire Caribbean and Latin American region as well as for the United States.
Haitian refugee crisis
Given the widespread insecurity, huge sectors of the population find themselves trapped in the midst of intense clashes in violence-stricken neighborhoods, and marginalized groups and vulnerable populations, in need of urgent humanitarian assistance are the most affected. Further in 2023, the expanding gang violence in Haiti has more than doubled the rate of criminal incidents, including kidnapping and homicide from the previous year.
As a result of the gang violence and political instability that targets citizens nationwide, many Haitians are facing displacement and seeking refuge abroad, mostly in the United States, putting a strain on an already backlogged US immigration system. Thus, if the humanitarian situation in Haiti is not resolved, it will exacerbate the refugee crisis with even more Haitian refugees fleeing violence.