Xi Jinping’s Absence at the G20 Summit: A Calculated Snub or a Sign of Worry?

The recent announcement that China’s President Xi Jinping will not attend the G20 summit in New Delhi is a revealing gesture that speaks volumes about the state of geopolitics, as well as the personal aspirations of the Chinese leader. The optics are hard to ignore: the absence is seen as a diplomatic snub to India, the host country, and poses questions about Xi’s willingness to engage as a global statesman.

A Shadow Over the Summit

Not attending a meeting of such strategic importance—where 19 countries and the European Union congregate to discuss critical global issues—is not only unprecedented for Xi Jinping but also laden with meaning. The Chinese authorities have offered no official reason for Xi’s absence, opting instead to send Premier Li Qiang. This evasiveness is typical of Beijing’s diplomacy, but the absence is so glaring that it almost becomes a statement in itself.

The Global Stage

The G20 absence comes at a time when China is facing increasing international scrutiny, particularly from the United States and India, the latter being the host of the summit. While the U.S. is perturbed by China’s support for Russia, India is increasingly alarmed by Beijing’s territorial ambitions in Asia. This could very well be Xi’s way of saying that he prefers platforms where China enjoys more influence, such as the BRICS summit. His no-show could also imply that any rapprochement with the U.S. will be done on his terms and timing, not as a sideshow at an international summit.

The Elephant in the Room: The Economy

Let’s not forget that China’s economy is currently in the throes of an escalating housing crisis, a significant challenge that may be forcing Xi to keep his focus domestic. Could it be that this crisis demands his full attention back home? Perhaps the Chinese leader is making the calculation that his absence from the G20 is a risk worth taking if it allows him to steer his country through these turbulent economic waters.

Diplomacy or Defiance?

It’s particularly interesting to note that China’s Ministry of State Security commented on U.S.-China relations, suggesting the U.S. needed to “show sufficient sincerity” for Xi to attend future summits. This is an unusual step and reflects the deep skepticism in China about U.S. intentions.

The Indian Perspective

As for India, Xi’s non-attendance is undoubtedly a blow to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to be seen as a global leader. The absence also adds another layer of complexity to the already strained Sino-Indian relations, aggravated most recently by territorial disputes. Yet, some Indian pundits argue that Xi’s no-show could actually work in Modi’s favor, as it avoids the optics of normalizing relations without addressing the border crises.

A Geopolitical Chessboard

Xi Jinping’s decision not to attend the G20 summit is a complex one, influenced by both international and domestic pressures. It reflects the Chinese leader’s preference for engaging in global platforms where he can exert more control. But it also may suggest a degree of vulnerability, especially when it comes to handling China’s economic woes. What it undeniably does is underline the growing tensions in global geopolitics, making each move on the international stage a piece in a much larger and increasingly precarious chessboard.