- South Caucasus Arms Race: India and Pakistan are fueling an arms buildup by supplying advanced fighter jets and military upgrades to Armenia and Azerbaijan, two rival nations in the region.
- Azerbaijan’s JF-17 Acquisition: Azerbaijan has confirmed the acquisition of Pakistan’s JF-17C Block III fighter jets, strengthening its air force with modern, multirole combat aircraft equipped with advanced radar systems.
- Armenia’s Su-30 Upgrades: Armenia, with India’s assistance, is upgrading its Russian Su-30SM fighters, enhancing their capabilities with new avionics, AESA radar, and advanced weapons, aiming to maintain an edge over Azerbaijan’s air force
In a strategic twist, neighboring rivals India and Pakistan, whose military competition has historically dominated South Asia, are now playing pivotal roles in bolstering the air forces of two other rival nations in the South Caucasus—Azerbaijan and Armenia. Both countries have modest air forces, but recent arms deals with these South Asian powers hint at a significant shift in the military balance of the region, which could alter future dynamics between the two South Caucasus adversaries.
On September 25, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, flashing a confident thumbs-up from the cockpit of a newly delivered JF-17C Block III fighter jet at Heydar Aliyev International Airport in Baku, confirmed what had long been speculated: Azerbaijan had indeed procured combat aircraft from Pakistan. The following day, the Pakistani military announced the signing of a contract to sell these multirole, single-engine fighter jets to Azerbaijan. While the contract’s exact terms, including the cost and the number of jets, remain undisclosed, reports earlier this year suggested a deal valued at around $1.6 billion.
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Azerbaijan’s air force, which previously consisted of a small fleet of aging Soviet-era MiG-29s and Su-25 attack aircraft, now boasts cutting-edge JF-17s equipped with advanced active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars. This upgrade offers Azerbaijan a significant technological boost, enabling it to potentially dominate the skies over the volatile Nagorno-Karabakh region, a focal point of conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The timing of this deal is noteworthy, as it comes amid growing concerns about a potential resumption of hostilities in the region.
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Across the border, Armenia is seeking to enhance its own aerial capabilities with help from India. On September 24, Indian media confirmed that Yerevan had requested assistance from New Delhi to upgrade its tiny fleet of four Russian-built Su-30SM fighters. The Su-30SM, a twin-engine, supermaneuverable fighter, is already the crown jewel of Armenia’s air force. However, in its current configuration, the fighter jets lack some of the modern technologies that could give Armenia a much-needed edge against Azerbaijan’s newly acquired JF-17s. The requested upgrades, which include AESA radars, modern avionics, and India’s indigenous Astra air-to-air missiles, are expected to bring Armenia’s Su-30s up to par with Azerbaijan’s newly enhanced air capabilities.
The assistance provided by India and Pakistan is not merely about economics but is deeply rooted in the geopolitics of the South Caucasus and the wider region. Both New Delhi and Islamabad have strategic interests in the area, and their roles in these arms deals reflect broader ambitions to extend influence beyond their traditional spheres.
Pakistan’s Strategic Alignment with Azerbaijan
Pakistan’s relationship with Azerbaijan has grown stronger in recent years, with both countries finding common ground in their shared religious and cultural heritage as Muslim-majority nations. Additionally, Pakistan’s refusal to recognize Armenia due to the latter’s occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh has solidified Baku’s perception of Islamabad as a reliable partner. The acquisition of the JF-17 Block III, jointly developed by Pakistan and China, is a testament to this burgeoning alliance.
The JF-17 Block III is a significant upgrade over Azerbaijan’s aging Soviet-era fleet. It offers advanced capabilities such as a high-performance AESA radar, which provides superior tracking and targeting capabilities, as well as advanced air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions. These modern jets are expected to significantly enhance Azerbaijan’s air force, making it a more formidable adversary in the event of renewed conflict with Armenia.
Moreover, Azerbaijan’s acquisition of these fighter jets underscores Pakistan’s growing role as an arms exporter. While the JF-17 was initially developed to meet Pakistan’s own defense needs, its competitive pricing and capabilities have made it an attractive option for countries looking to modernize their air forces without the hefty price tag of Western-made jets like the U.S.-made F-16 or the French Rafale. Pakistan has already sold JF-17s to Nigeria and Myanmar, and the deal with Azerbaijan further cements its position as an emerging player in the global arms market.
For Azerbaijan, the induction of these modern jets could not have come at a more critical time. Following its decisive military victory over Armenia in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, Baku has been keen to solidify its gains and ensure its military superiority in the region. The JF-17s will provide Azerbaijan with a versatile platform capable of carrying out a wide range of missions, from air superiority and ground attack to reconnaissance.
India’s Role in Armenia’s Military Revamp
On the other side of the conflict, Armenia has been diversifying its military procurement sources in recent years, a strategic shift aimed at reducing its dependence on Russia. While Moscow has traditionally been Yerevan’s primary arms supplier, the country’s leadership has grown increasingly wary of relying too heavily on a single source, particularly given Russia’s ongoing involvement in the Ukraine war and its strained relationship with Armenia.
India has emerged as a key partner in Armenia’s efforts to modernize its military. In addition to upgrading its Su-30 fleet, Armenia has already purchased the Indian-made Akash air defense system and is reportedly considering other advanced weapons systems. This partnership is mutually beneficial, as India seeks to expand its influence in the region while countering Pakistan’s growing military ties with Azerbaijan.
The upgrades to Armenia’s Su-30s are particularly significant. India’s expertise in operating and maintaining the Su-30, which it produces under license as the Su-30MKI, makes it an ideal partner for Armenia. The proposed upgrades, including the installation of AESA radars and advanced avionics, will bring Armenia’s Su-30s in line with some of the most advanced variants of the aircraft currently in service.
India’s indigenous Astra missile, a beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM), is another key component of the upgrade package. Capable of engaging targets at distances of up to 110 kilometers, the Astra will provide Armenia’s Su-30s with a significant increase in firepower. This will be particularly important in any future conflict with Azerbaijan, as Armenia will need to offset the numerical advantage of Baku’s larger air force.
India’s role in upgrading Armenia’s Su-30s is also part of a broader strategy to increase its presence in the global arms market. In recent years, India has sought to position itself as a supplier of advanced defense systems to countries that may not have access to Western or Russian-made weapons. The potential for India to jointly produce Su-30s with Russia for export could further enhance its standing as a key player in the international arms trade.
Geopolitical Implications
The parallel arms deals involving Pakistan and India in the South Caucasus have significant geopolitical implications. Both countries are leveraging their defense industries to expand their influence in a region that has long been a crossroads for competing powers.
For Pakistan, the deal with Azerbaijan is part of a broader strategy to strengthen ties with Muslim-majority countries outside of its immediate neighborhood. Baku’s acquisition of the JF-17s not only enhances its military capabilities but also solidifies its strategic relationship with Islamabad, potentially paving the way for further cooperation in areas such as defense production and intelligence sharing.
India’s involvement in Armenia’s military modernization, on the other hand, is part of its broader effort to counter Pakistan’s growing influence in the region. By helping Armenia upgrade its Su-30s and providing it with advanced weaponry, New Delhi is ensuring that Yerevan remains capable of defending itself against Azerbaijan’s increasingly sophisticated military.
Moreover, these developments come at a time when Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus is waning. Moscow’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine and its deteriorating relations with Armenia have created a vacuum that both India and Pakistan are eager to fill. This shift could have far-reaching consequences for the region’s security architecture, as the traditional reliance on Russian military hardware gives way to a more multipolar arms market.
The ongoing competition between India and Pakistan in the South Caucasus is unlikely to abate anytime soon. As both countries continue to build strategic partnerships in the region, their rivalries are being projected onto an increasingly global stage. For Azerbaijan and Armenia, the influx of advanced military technology from these two South Asian powers will likely intensify the arms race in the South Caucasus, with potentially destabilizing consequences for the region.
