- Trump’s Africa Strategy: Examining his first term’s focus on countering China’s influence and its potential revival.
- China’s Advantage: How U.S. disengagement could provide Beijing more room to maneuver.
- Critical Minerals Race: Why Africa’s resources are key in U.S.-China competition.
- Infrastructure Projects: The future of U.S.-backed initiatives like the Lobito Corridor.
President-elect Donald Trump, during his campaign, repeatedly promised to take a hard stance on China, including imposing sweeping tariffs on imports. Beyond economic relations, Beijing will also be closely monitoring how the new administration approaches Africa, a continent where U.S.-China rivalry is increasingly pronounced.
How could US-China rivalry in Africa play out under Trump 2.0?
Experts are divided on how a second Trump term might affect China’s ambitions in Africa, its largest trade partner. Some believe Trump’s “America First” agenda, which historically leaned toward isolationism, could create opportunities for Beijing to deepen its influence. However, others argue that Trump’s recognition of China’s growing power in Africa might lead to more focused U.S. engagement.
A Counter to China’s Influence?
Tibor Nagy, who served as Trump’s Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, disagrees with the notion that Trump would neglect Africa. Nagy, a former U.S. ambassador to Guinea and Ethiopia, said the Trump administration recognized China’s strategic moves on the continent.
“It was the Trump administration that was the first to kind of recognize the existential threat that China poses,” Nagy told VOA. “We were on the front lines of that in Africa, and we saw what the Chinese were doing.”
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Nagy highlighted efforts such as the launch of Prosper Africa in 2018, an initiative aimed at boosting American business opportunities in Africa. He argued that the administration’s focus on job creation for Africa’s rapidly growing youth population addressed a critical need.
Additionally, Nagy pointed out that Africa’s wealth of critical minerals, vital for advanced technologies and defense systems, ensures it will remain a priority. “The United States is extremely concerned about our strategic minerals, and when a hostile power has a lock on them, that’s not good for us,” he said.
Skepticism and Opportunities for China
Others, however, are skeptical about Trump’s commitment to Africa. Christian-Geraud Neema, Africa editor for the China-Global South Project, said a second Trump term might provide Beijing with an edge. “Looking at his first term, Trump didn’t show much interest in Africa, which is likely to be the case still now,” he told VOA.
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Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, shared similar doubts. “I doubt that Africa will be a featured priority for Trump,” she said. She warned that the U.S.’s absence could further solidify China’s presence and influence across the continent.
Biden’s Legacy and the Lobito Corridor
Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. sought to reassert its influence in Africa. Biden hosted the African Leaders Summit in 2022, where he pledged to support key infrastructure projects, including the Lobito Corridor and the Zambia-Lobito rail line. These initiatives aim to connect the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and are co-financed by the African Development Bank, the African Finance Corporation, and the European Union.
The rail project is viewed as a counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has heavily invested in African infrastructure. Despite Biden’s efforts, some analysts remain critical, noting that African leaders were not consulted in developing the U.S.-Africa strategy or the summit’s agenda.
Will Trump Sustain Biden’s Initiatives?
While some worry that Trump might abandon Biden-era projects like the Lobito Corridor, Nagy dismissed such fears. He said the initiative aligns with Trump’s approach to counter China’s influence. “The deal is done,” Nagy emphasized, suggesting continuity in U.S. engagement in Africa.
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However, analysts like Oluwole Ojewale from the Institute for Security Studies believe Trump’s isolationist tendencies could leave a vacuum for China to fill. “When that happens, China will gain significant mileage,” he warned.
African Leaders’ Perspective
Amid the rivalry, African leaders may find ways to leverage the U.S.-China competition. Kenya’s Raila Odinga, a potential candidate for the African Union Commission chair, stated bluntly, “If [Trump] does not want to work with Africa, Africa has got other friends.”
Yun Sun agreed that African governments could play the two powers against each other but cautioned against such a strategy, saying it could force the continent into choosing sides, a move many African nations are likely to avoid.
Conclusion
As Trump prepares for a potential return to the White House, Africa remains a strategic battleground for U.S.-China competition. Whether Trump will prioritize the continent or provide Beijing with opportunities to expand its influence will depend on his administration’s willingness to engage in meaningful partnerships. For African leaders, the challenge lies in navigating this great-power rivalry while advancing their own development goals.