Putin’s strategic gains ensure a favorable outcome for Russia in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
Any peace deal would likely cement Russian control over significant Ukrainian territories.
The Kremlin remains firm on NATO exclusion and Ukraine’s neutrality.
Despite Western aid, Russia’s position continues to strengthen diplomatically and militarily.
As the world watches the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, one unsettling conclusion appears to be solidifying: Vladimir Putin may have already won. The contours of any potential peace deal seem increasingly favorable to Moscow, tilting the geopolitical balance in Russia’s favor. While some may argue this assessment is premature, a closer examination of the conflict’s dynamics and the likely terms of any resolution reveal that Putin has secured a dominant position.
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Recent reports suggest that Putin is open to discussing a ceasefire with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, but only on terms heavily favoring Russia. These include Kyiv abandoning its NATO ambitions and accepting the “realities” on the ground. For Putin, these realities include Russia’s control over a significant portion of Ukrainian territory and its influence over Ukraine’s geopolitical future.
The Strategic Landscape
Russia currently controls about 18% of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea, annexed in 2014, and substantial parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. These regions form a crucial land bridge to Crimea and represent key economic and strategic assets. Despite Ukraine’s recent military gains and Western support, Moscow has entrenched its position in these territories, making any significant Ukrainian counter-offensive unlikely to succeed without massive escalation.
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Putin has made it clear that he will not relinquish these gains easily. In a recent statement to the Valdai discussion group, he reiterated that any ceasefire must reflect the current territorial realities. He also expressed concerns that a temporary truce might allow the West to rearm Ukraine, prolonging the conflict. This is a key sticking point for Russia, which views Ukraine’s Western alignment as an existential threat.
Putin’s Peace Playbook
According to sources close to the Kremlin, Moscow could agree to freeze the conflict along existing frontlines. However, this would cement Russian control over occupied territories while leaving room for limited negotiations over smaller regions. For instance, Russia may consider withdrawing from minor areas in the Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions but will not compromise on the broader territorial carve-up.
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Putin’s insistence on Ukraine’s neutrality is non-negotiable. This would mean Kyiv abandoning its NATO ambitions and limiting its military capabilities. Moscow is also likely to demand guarantees that Ukraine will not restrict the use of the Russian language, reflecting Putin’s long-standing narrative of protecting Russian speakers in Ukraine.
Such demands effectively strip Ukraine of its sovereignty, turning it into a buffer state between Russia and NATO. For Putin, this outcome would validate his justification for the invasion: pushing back against NATO’s expansion and preserving Russia’s sphere of influence.
A Ceasefire on Putin’s Terms
The possibility of a ceasefire brokered by Donald Trump adds another layer of complexity. Trump has claimed he is uniquely positioned to negotiate peace, citing his deal-making skills. However, the reality is that any deal would have to align with Russia’s core demands to be viable. Trump’s overtures to Putin, combined with his past skepticism of NATO, suggest he may be more willing than his predecessors to accommodate Moscow.
Under these circumstances, a ceasefire deal would likely freeze the conflict without resolving the underlying issues. Ukraine would lose de facto control over occupied territories, and the West would face a weakened Ukraine reliant on perpetual military and economic aid. Meanwhile, Russia would solidify its hold on strategic regions, effectively dictating the terms of post-conflict geopolitics.
The Harsh Truth: Russia’s Ascendancy
Despite the heavy costs of the war, Russia has achieved several strategic objectives. It has asserted its dominance in the Donbas, secured a land bridge to Crimea, and demonstrated its willingness to confront NATO indirectly. Domestically, Putin can frame these gains as a victory, reinforcing his narrative of Russia standing up to Western arrogance.
Western military support for Ukraine, while significant, has not been enough to reverse Russia’s territorial gains. Even advanced weaponry, such as U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles, has not shifted the broader strategic picture. As two Russian officials noted, such escalations might only harden Moscow’s position, prolonging the conflict rather than resolving it.
The Implications for Geopolitics
If a peace deal tilts toward Russia, the consequences for global geopolitics will be profound. First, it would signal the limits of Western power in countering Russian aggression. NATO’s inability to roll back Russian advances would embolden other authoritarian regimes, particularly China, in their territorial disputes.
Second, a Russian victory would deepen divisions within Europe and NATO. Countries like Poland and the Baltic states, which see Russian aggression as a direct threat, may push for a more confrontational stance, potentially fracturing the alliance.
Third, the conflict’s resolution could reshape global power dynamics, with Russia emerging as a key player in a multipolar world. By forcing the West to negotiate on its terms, Moscow would solidify its influence over Eastern Europe and beyond.
Ukraine’s Dilemma
For Ukraine, the stakes could not be higher. President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly vowed to reclaim all occupied territories, but this goal appears increasingly unattainable. While Ukrainian forces have shown remarkable resilience, the reality is that a prolonged conflict will strain the country’s resources and Western support.
A ceasefire on Russian terms would leave Ukraine as a weakened state, unable to join NATO or the European Union. This outcome would be a bitter pill for Kyiv, which has sought to align itself with the West since the 2014 Maidan Revolution.
Conclusion: The Cost of Peace
The question is not whether Putin has won the war, but how much more he stands to gain. A peace deal, if brokered, will likely validate Russia’s territorial claims and geopolitical ambitions. While the West may frame such an outcome as a necessary compromise to end the bloodshed, it would set a dangerous precedent for international relations.
For Ukraine, the fight for sovereignty is far from over. For the West, the challenge lies in balancing the desire for peace with the imperative to deter future aggression. And for Putin, the war may have already delivered its most important victory: the reassertion of Russian power on the global stage.