- Escalated Trade Tensions: Trump’s potential 60% tariffs on Chinese goods could severely impact China’s economy, hampering growth and disrupting global supply chains. This could accelerate the economic and strategic decoupling between the U.S. and China.
- Opportunities for China in Global Influence: Trump’s transactional and protectionist policies may weaken U.S. alliances and global leadership, opening doors for China to strengthen ties with Europe and developing countries, potentially advancing Beijing’s goal of shaping a multipolar world order.
- Taiwan and Security Dynamics: Trump’s more transactional approach toward Taiwan, including controversial statements about the island’s chip industry and U.S. protection, could lead China to test Washington’s commitment, potentially seeking concessions in exchange for decreased military and diplomatic support.
- China-Russia-U.S. Triangle: Trump’s willingness to negotiate with Russia could ease U.S.-Russia tensions, potentially creating a rift between Moscow and Beijing, as Russia might realign its interests if U.S. relations improve, complicating China’s strategic partnership with Russia.
The historic return of Donald Trump to the White House has sent ripples through the geopolitical landscape, particularly in China, where leaders are bracing for an uncertain and potentially turbulent future in the already complex U.S.-China rivalry. With Trump’s protectionist stance and “America First” agenda, Beijing anticipates a renewed strain on its economy through tariffs, technology restrictions, and increased tensions over contentious issues like Taiwan.
However, despite these risks, Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy approach may also provide opportunities for China to further its global influence amid a possible U.S. retreat from alliances and international institutions.
Trump’s Return: Economic Risks and Trade War 2.0
During his first term, Trump’s hardline trade policies fundamentally altered the relationship between the U.S. and China. His administration slapped tariffs on Chinese goods, sanctioned companies like Huawei, and labeled China as responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, a move that escalated tensions and caused lasting economic impacts. Now, Trump has proposed a second wave of tariffs as high as 60% on all Chinese imports—a staggering level that could severely damage China’s economy.
Economic upheaval and political opportunity – what Trump’s return could mean for China
Should these tariffs be implemented, analysts predict a drastic hit to China’s GDP, with estimates suggesting that economic growth could drop by as much as two percentage points, a significant reduction in a country targeting around 5% growth. As Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, highlighted, these tariffs would severely impact China’s export-driven growth model, posing a substantial threat to an economy already struggling with debt, a property crisis, and a decline in consumer demand. The ripple effects would extend to global markets, impacting supply chains, raising costs, and potentially hurting consumers and businesses on both sides.
For China, the high tariffs would exacerbate existing economic vulnerabilities and could compel policymakers to find alternative growth strategies. Trump’s mercurial approach to policy, co
upled with his protectionist and nationalist views, means that China can expect little leniency or predictability from the White House.
Beijing’s Calculated Response to Trump’s Win
While official statements from Beijing have projected a stance of calm neutrality, experts suggest that China’s leadership is quietly preparing for the challenges that Trump’s return could bring. Chinese President Xi Jinping extended congratulations to Trump, emphasizing that the two nations should “find the right way” to cooperate. Despite this diplomatic language, Trump’s reputation for unpredictability looms over Beijing, making it challenging for Chinese policymakers to anticipate how he might approach specific issues. Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based foreign policy analyst, noted that China perceives Trump’s return as both a risk and an opportunity, with the eventual outcome depending on how effectively the two nations manage their interactions.
Donald Trump’s Return to the White House: Global Repercussions, Priorities, and Speculation
Trump’s previous term showed a shift from initial praise for Xi to a full-blown trade war and intense rivalry. This inconsistency forces China to take a cautious approach, as it gauges whether Trump will pursue the same adversarial policies or take a different route. “Trump is a very mercurial person,” observed Liu Dongshu, an international affairs professor at City University of Hong Kong, highlighting the difficulty of predicting Trump’s actual policy moves.
Strategic Openings Amid “America First” Foreign Policy
Despite these risks, Trump’s nationalist and transactional worldview presents openings for Beijing. Trump’s return to “America First” rhetoric may signal a diminished U.S. role in international alliances and global institutions, which would likely create strategic space for China. During his first term, Trump openly criticized NATO and questioned its relevance, which alienated European allies. With Trump back in office, there’s potential for further strain in transatlantic relationships, which China could leverage to strengthen its economic and diplomatic ties with Europe.
By adopting a more multilateral approach, China could position itself as a stable partner and an advocate for globalization. “Although Beijing is deeply concerned about the unpredictability of Trump’s China policy, it reminds itself that challenges also bring opportunities,” said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Zhao pointed out that while Trump’s tough stance on tariffs may affect China, it’s likely to be unpopular with Europe, potentially pushing European leaders to seek closer economic ties with Beijing.
Furthermore, Trump’s reluctance to invest in alliances could undermine the United States’ ability to counterbalance China’s influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. America’s potential inward turn may be a relief to Beijing, which is wary of Washington’s recent strategy to encircle it with a so-called “Asian NATO.” Reduced U.S. involvement in these alliances would give China more freedom to exert regional influence without the same level of American interference.
Taiwan: Trump’s Transactional Approach and Beijing’s Calculated Gamble
The issue of Taiwan remains central to U.S.-China relations, and Trump’s comments on Taiwan during his campaign suggest a more transactional approach to the island. While past administrations, including Trump’s first term, strengthened military and diplomatic support for Taiwan, his recent remarks have cast doubt on how committed he might be to defending the island. He accused Taiwan of “stealing” the chip industry from the U.S. and hinted that Taiwan might need to pay for American protection, signaling a more business-oriented view on what has traditionally been a strategic alliance.
From Beijing’s perspective, Trump’s apparent ambivalence towards Taiwan could open the door for negotiations or concessions. With Trump seemingly less interested in supporting Taiwan unconditionally, China might see an opportunity to press for reduced U.S. military presence or diminished diplomatic support for the island. “With Trump’s relatively less strong interest in defending Taiwan, Beijing may seek greater concessions from Washington on the Taiwan issue,” Zhao explained. By leveraging Trump’s deal-making nature, China could potentially gain more favorable terms regarding Taiwan without risking direct confrontation.
Potential Rift with Russia: A Double-Edged Sword
A renewed Trump administration may also have implications for the evolving Russia-China relationship. Trump’s friendly stance toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, combined with his suggestions about easing the U.S. stance on Ukraine, could influence the complex dynamic between Moscow and Beijing. Improved U.S.-Russia relations could remove a crucial tension point in China-Europe relations by reducing the Western focus on the Ukraine conflict. However, this could also drive a wedge between Russia and China, whose alignment has deepened amid the West’s sanctions on Moscow.
Liu Dongshu observed that Trump’s favorable outlook on Russia could lead to a shift in Russia’s reliance on China, potentially weakening Beijing’s strategic position. If Russia becomes less isolated internationally, it may no longer be as dependent on Chinese support, which could reduce China’s leverage in its alliance with Russia.
Navigating an Uncertain Future
The prospect of Trump’s second term presents China with a set of difficult choices. While Beijing could benefit from a weakened U.S. global presence and capitalize on its alliances with countries in Europe, the Global South, and Asia, the looming threat of higher tariffs, strained economic relations, and the potential for renewed technology restrictions creates a high-risk environment. Beijing’s response will likely be shaped by its dual strategy: preparing for a worst-case scenario while carefully monitoring any openings for diplomacy or influence.
China’s strategy under Xi has been characterized by cautious assertiveness, and Trump’s unpredictability may push Beijing to further diversify its economic and diplomatic relationships. To counter U.S. pressure, China has increasingly sought to expand its influence in the Global South, positioning itself as a leader in a new, multipolar world order. This strategy could accelerate if Trump’s “America First” policies alienate traditional U.S. allies.
Ultimately, Trump’s return introduces a new set of complexities into the already delicate U.S.-China rivalry. While Beijing may attempt to leverage Trump’s transactional approach to advance its interests, any gains will be balanced against the potential economic setbacks of a renewed trade war and the unpredictability of Trump’s decision-making. As Shen Dingli pointed out, “Whether it eventually leads to more risks or more opportunities depends on how the two sides interact with each other.” For now, China appears prepared to navigate the volatile path ahead, balancing cautious optimism with the readiness to confront an increasingly uncertain world.