- Analyze the potential trajectory of U.S.-China relations under a second Trump administration.
- Understand the role of domestic reform and allied collaboration in countering Beijing.
- Explore key economic, technological, and security strategies to mitigate China’s influence.
- Examine China’s likely responses and strategic maneuvers to a renewed Trump presidency.
Predicting the approach a potential second Trump administration might take toward China—and how Beijing could respond—is fraught with uncertainty. During his first term, Donald Trump’s preference for transactional diplomacy often clashed with his team’s more competitive and hardline stance. This tension is likely to persist. Yet the most pressing question remains: Can the United States strengthen its position against China during this pivotal decade?
At the start of the Biden administration, senior officials recognized that the 2020s would likely determine whether the U.S. could maintain its edge over China. They warned that without decisive action, the United States risked falling behind technologically, becoming economically dependent on China, and losing its military advantage in critical regions like the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait. If reelected, Trump would inherit this pivotal timeline and the immense challenge of securing America’s global leadership.
Trump’s potential national security team—featuring figures such as Mike Waltz as national security adviser, Marco Rubio as secretary of state, and Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the United Nations—appears to share a bipartisan consensus on countering China. However, Trump’s tendency to prioritize deal-making and his unpredictable relationship with President Xi Jinping could complicate these efforts, as it occasionally did during his first term. To succeed, his team would need to manage these impulses while pursuing a more coherent strategy to compete with China.
ariffs may be just the start of U.S.-China disputes in a second Trump term
A second Trump administration might find value in building on the framework established by Biden. The Biden administration’s approach—summarized by the mantra “invest, align, compete”—focused on strengthening the United States at home and bolstering alliances abroad. This philosophy aligns with Trump’s emphasis on “peace through strength” but would require an equally robust commitment to bipartisan action and public support.
Rebuilding the domestic foundations of American power will be crucial. For decades, these foundations have weakened, leaving the United States vulnerable in key areas like manufacturing, technology, and infrastructure. To compete effectively with China, a second Trump administration would need to prioritize reforms in these sectors.
Revitalizing the defense industrial base is an urgent priority. The United States currently lacks the capacity to sustain prolonged military operations in the Indo-Pacific. Stockpiles of munitions would be exhausted within days, and the country’s shipbuilding industry is incapable of quickly replacing lost vessels. Immediate measures to deploy advanced missile systems and uncrewed platforms in the region must be complemented by long-term investments to rebuild the shipbuilding sector, which has been in decline for decades.
Cybersecurity is another critical vulnerability. China has already compromised key U.S. infrastructure, including water systems, transportation, and telecommunications. A future Trump administration would need to introduce stricter regulations to hold companies accountable for weak cyber defenses and invest in cutting-edge technologies to deter and counter cyberattacks. Strengthening these defenses is essential to maintaining stability and deterring Chinese aggression.
China-US Economic competitiveness
Economic competitiveness will also require significant attention. China’s dominance in global manufacturing and its technological advancements pose a direct threat to America’s economic future. Beijing’s focus on industrial expansion risks flooding global markets with cheap goods, creating a “second China shock” that could devastate U.S. industries. Addressing this challenge will demand more than tariffs; it will require industrial policies to support domestic manufacturing and technological innovation. Coordinating these efforts with allies is vital, as punitive measures against partners could undermine collective efforts to counter China’s influence.
The U.S. Trade Policy Under Trump’s New Team – Decoupling from China as a Generational Challenge
To advance these priorities, the Trump administration would need to engage Congress and foster bipartisan support. Legislative successes like the CHIPS and Science Act and Biden’s infrastructure initiatives demonstrate how cross-party collaboration can drive meaningful change. Trump’s team would need to adopt a similar approach, securing congressional backing for policies aimed at countering China.
Public support will also be essential. Since 2001, every U.S. president has delivered major addresses on Middle East policy, but none have done so on the strategic challenge posed by China. A primetime address by Trump, framing the competition with China as a matter of national interest, could rally support from Americans across sectors, including academia, industry, and civil society. Striking the right tone—competitive but not inflammatory—will be critical to gaining broad-based buy-in.
China’s scale and influence present a monumental challenge. With four times the U.S. population and a leading role in global manufacturing, China is the largest trading partner for more than 100 countries. For the United States to compete effectively, it must strengthen its network of allies and partners, leveraging their collective resources to counterbalance China’s dominance.
The stakes for the United States could not be higher. As the second half of this critical decade unfolds, Trump’s ability to align his leadership style with a strategic and coordinated approach to China will determine the future of America’s global influence.
American alliances and partnerships are the bedrock of its global strength. As the world faces heightened tensions with China, a second Trump administration would need to focus on both domestic reform and international collaboration to counter Beijing effectively. Beyond addressing structural challenges at home, it would require strengthening alliances in two critical areas: economics and technology, and security.
In the economic and technological realm, pooling allied resources and aligning tariff and regulatory policies to protect Western industries would be vital. This cooperative effort could help stave off a second “China shock,” where Beijing’s economic maneuvers might flood global markets with cheap goods, undermining Western industries. Preventing sensitive technologies from falling into Chinese hands would also necessitate tighter export controls, which would be more effective if implemented in unison with allies.
China-US Security Comparison
Security efforts would build on the achievements of the Biden administration, such as AUKUS, which offers Australia nuclear submarine capabilities, and the Quad, uniting the United States, Australia, Japan, and India. Expanding the footprint of U.S. forces across the Indo-Pacific—through partnerships with countries like the Philippines, Japan, and Papua New Guinea—has proven effective in mitigating risks from China’s missile systems. Deploying advanced missile systems like the Typhon in allied territories further deters Chinese aggression, while coordinated sanctions and unified responses to military provocations could impose significant political and economic costs on Beijing.
The success of these strategies hinges on how a Trump administration would engage its allies. Europe, for instance, is wary of potential U.S. tariffs, reduced military support for Ukraine, and the possibility of Trump pursuing détente with Russia. Instead of alienating European partners with unilateral demands, the administration should aim for a strategic realignment, encouraging Europe to strengthen its defenses, support Ukraine more robustly, and take tougher stances on China’s economic policies. This approach would reinforce transatlantic cooperation without damaging long-term alliances.
In Asia, Trump’s first-term threats to withdraw U.S. troops and pressure allies for increased payments for military bases were grounded in leverage but failed to consider the domestic political realities of these nations. A subtler approach that respects the political dynamics of regional partners could yield better results in aligning them with U.S. goals. For example, enlisting allies in countering China’s ambitions in the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait requires tact and shared incentives rather than coercion.
Meanwhile, Beijing has already started preparing for the potential return of Trump. The threat of 60 percent tariffs on Chinese goods has prompted China to consider retaliatory measures, including export controls and sanctions targeting U.S. companies. How Beijing responds will depend on its assessment of Trump’s intentions. If China believes the tariffs are a bargaining tactic, it might adopt a restrained response, using diplomacy and targeted retaliation to negotiate a favorable deal. Alternatively, if China perceives the tariffs as a nonnegotiable U.S. policy aimed at decoupling, it might escalate aggressively, potentially targeting key sectors like semiconductors or rare earths.
China’s past strategies during Trump’s first term offer insights into its likely response. Beijing successfully leveraged personal diplomacy to influence Trump, resulting in U.S. concessions on issues like Huawei, ZTE, and even human rights concerns in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. This history raises concerns that Beijing could propose a grand bargain, seeking to negotiate U.S. policies on trade, technology, or Taiwan directly with Trump. Such overtures would need to be handled with caution, as they could undermine the broader competitive stance advocated by more hardline U.S. officials.
A more effective tariff strategy for the Trump administration would involve gradual increases, allowing time for U.S. and global companies to adjust while complicating China’s ability to retaliate decisively. Incremental measures would reduce Beijing’s capacity to portray the United States as the primary disruptor of global trade, offering political cover for Chinese leaders to seek a deal. This approach could also secure meaningful concessions from China without forcing immediate and escalatory retaliation.
Ultimately, the Trump administration’s success in countering China will depend on its ability to balance toughness with strategic restraint. A transactional mindset focused on short-term wins would risk alienating allies and undermining long-term goals. Conversely, a coordinated strategy that strengthens domestic industries, fosters robust alliances, and addresses the multifaceted challenges posed by Beijing could help the United States maintain its global leadership.
As the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China intensifies, the stakes for American leadership could not be higher. A second Trump administration would need to navigate these complexities with precision, ensuring that the U.S. not only competes with China but also secures its position as a global power for decades to come.
China’s strategy for a second Trump administration could reshape global dynamics. In 2017, Xi Jinping positioned China as a champion of globalization, casting the United States as a declining power. A renewed trade war would provide Beijing another platform to advance this narrative. Beyond economics, Xi might also attempt to position China as a mediator in conflicts like those in the Middle East and Europe, further bolstering its international clout.
China is simultaneously strengthening ties with U.S. allies, including Europe, Japan, and even India, to counterbalance tensions.
