- Trump’s Middle East Challenge: How will his second term reshape U.S. policy on Iran, Syria, and rising extremist threats?
- Power Vacuums and Risks: The fall of Assad and Hezbollah’s decline create dangerous opportunities for ISIS resurgence.
- Turkey’s Influence: Erdoğan’s ties to HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani could guide U.S. policy under Trump.
- Geopolitical Shifts: Russia’s diminished presence and Iran’s potential nuclear ambitions add layers to the Middle East equation.
The Middle East stands at a critical juncture as major power shifts unfold, compounded by the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House in six weeks. How he approaches this volatile landscape will significantly influence the region’s trajectory and global security dynamics.
A Region in Flux
Israel’s recent military actions in Lebanon and the ousting of Bashar al-Assad from Syria have significantly weakened Iran’s “axis of resistance,” a cornerstone of its regional influence. With Tehran’s allies debilitated, opportunities arise to address deep-seated issues such as Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the Sunni-Shiite divide, and the Israel-Palestine conflict. However, these opportunities are shadowed by potential escalations in chaos, necessitating nuanced leadership—a quality Trump has yet to demonstrate in Middle Eastern policy.
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s Road to Power: A Turning Point for Syria and the Region
During his previous term, Trump showed a preference for disengagement, notably dismissing Syria’s importance as a land of “sand and death.” This hands-off approach raises questions about whether he will adopt a similar stance or engage with the complexities of the new Middle Eastern reality.
The Dangers of Inaction
While Trump’s instincts to avoid entanglement might resonate with some, the risks of inaction are substantial. Assad’s departure has created a power vacuum ripe for exploitation by extremist groups like ISIS, whose remnants, numbering around 2,500 fighters, could resurge amidst Syria’s instability. U.S. Central Command’s recent airstrikes on ISIS targets underscore the urgent need to curb this threat.
Syria’s Post-Assad Landscape: Gas Pipelines, Geopolitical Shifts, and Persistent Questions
Another pressing concern is Syria’s stockpile of chemical weapons. These hazardous materials, previously wielded by Assad against civilians, could fall into the hands of unstable factions, further destabilizing the region.
Finally, there is uncertainty surrounding Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group that toppled Assad. Led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani, HTS has pledged a federated government respecting minority rights, a claim met with skepticism given its Salafist roots and the U.S. designation of the group as a terrorist organization. Critics warn that HTS could transform Syria into a Salafi stronghold, potentially destabilizing neighboring countries and reigniting sectarian violence.
Trump’s Potential Approach
Trump’s prior disengagement from Kurdish allies in 2019, ceding ground to adversaries, suggests a propensity for isolationism. His relationship with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, a staunch supporter of HTS, could influence his decisions, potentially aligning U.S. policy with Turkish objectives. This raises concerns about whether Trump would back Golani’s vision of governance or prioritize Turkey’s interests over broader regional stability.
Syrian rebel leader’s victory speech holds a message for Iran – and for Trump and Israel too
Moreover, Trump’s stance on Iran will be critical. The collapse of Iran’s regional allies may push Tehran to pursue nuclear capabilities more aggressively. Trump’s “maximum-pressure” campaign during his first term failed to curtail Iran’s ambitions, raising doubts about the efficacy of this strategy should he pursue it again. Alternatively, Trump might consider reviving a version of the Obama-era nuclear accord, balancing sanctions relief with restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.
The Role of Regional and Global Powers
Russia’s diminished influence in Syria, exacerbated by its focus on Ukraine, adds another layer of complexity. While Russia seeks to retain its military foothold in Syria, its role in the new regime remains uncertain. Similarly, Israel’s involvement, from its targeted strikes to its troop deployments near Syria’s border, underscores its vested interest in shaping the post-Assad landscape.
Trump’s position on these dynamics remains unclear. His past indifference toward Russian maneuvers and his isolationist tendencies could lead to reduced U.S. involvement, leaving room for regional powers like Turkey and global players like China and Russia to assert greater influence.
Critical Questions Ahead
As Trump prepares to take office, key questions loom:
- Will he engage with HTS’s leadership to encourage a pluralistic governance model, or will he leave Syria’s fate to regional actors like Turkey?
- How will he address the resurgence of ISIS and the risks posed by Syria’s chemical stockpiles?
- Will he confront Iran’s nuclear ambitions through diplomacy or escalation?
The coming weeks will reveal Trump’s strategy—or lack thereof—for addressing the Middle East’s challenges. His decisions will shape not only the region’s stability but also the global geopolitical landscape. Whether through active engagement or strategic withdrawal, Trump’s approach must balance immediate threats with long-term interests, ensuring that the Middle East’s transformation does not spiral into further chaos.