- Von der Leyen’s China Pivot – A surprising shift from her hardline stance on Beijing raises questions about EU strategy.
- Trump’s Return Complicates EU Policy – With Trump’s unpredictable approach, Europe faces new uncertainties.
- China’s Wolf Warrior Diplomacy – Lu Shaye’s appointment signals Beijing’s aggressive diplomatic stance.
- EU’s Balancing Act – Europe struggles to assert its own interests amid U.S.-China tensions.
In a surprising turn of events, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a known China hawk, recently suggested new “agreements” with Beijing, even hinting at the possibility of expanding trade and investment ties. This marked a significant shift from her previously assertive stance and was not coordinated with other EU policymakers.
The timing of her remarks was particularly intriguing, as they were followed almost immediately by Beijing’s appointment of veteran diplomat Lu Shaye as China’s special representative for European affairs. Lu, infamous for his abrasive “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy, has a reputation for strained relations, having been summoned multiple times by the French foreign ministry during his tenure as ambassador to France. His appointment is widely interpreted as a signal of Beijing’s strategic intentions towards Europe.
The developments highlight the increasingly precarious position of the European Union in global geopolitics. The EU finds itself caught between two superpowers, neither of which seem inclined to make concessions. This dilemma is exacerbated by the return of former U.S. President Donald Trump, who has resumed his aggressive trade policies against Europe, threatening tariffs on EU goods and dismissing European leaders’ concerns.
The U.S. Failure in Afghanistan: A Catastrophe of Miscalculations and Hubris
The EU’s attempts to align its China policy with Washington’s have been thrown into question by Trump’s unpredictable approach. While President Joe Biden sought a united front with Europe on China, Trump’s “America First” philosophy suggests he may prioritize a bilateral trade deal with Beijing, potentially leaving the EU sidelined. His administration’s ties to figures with significant business interests in China, such as Elon Musk and Kash Patel, further fuel European fears of being abandoned.
Amidst these uncertainties, von der Leyen appears to be recalibrating her China strategy. She continues to emphasize “de-risking” trade relations and addressing Chinese industrial overcapacity, yet her latest rhetoric suggests an openness to engagement. This delicate balancing act reflects the EU’s broader struggle to assert its own interests in an increasingly transactional world order.
Some analysts believe von der Leyen’s remarks were politically calculated. With Germany’s next chancellor likely to be Friedrich Merz, whose industrial backers fear an overly confrontational China policy, von der Leyen’s shift could be an attempt to appeal to this constituency. Others interpret it as a strategic move to keep both Beijing and Washington guessing about the EU’s next steps.
EU signals pragmatic tone as it walks ‘fine line’ between China and the US
Despite these diplomatic overtures, there are no signs of a fundamental change in EU policy. Brussels continues to tighten restrictions on Chinese businesses, implementing new regulations that curb Chinese participation in renewable energy projects and scrutinizing investments in critical technology sectors such as AI and semiconductors. Additionally, a recent probe into Shein under the EU’s digital services act and a proposed end to tariff-free imports for low-cost Chinese goods signal continued economic pushback against Beijing.
Meanwhile, the EU remains wary of China’s deepening ties with Russia. The European Commission has added more Chinese companies to a sanctions list for allegedly aiding Russia’s military, further straining relations between Brussels and Beijing.
EU Prepares to Retaliate Against Trump’s Tariffs with Countermeasures
While von der Leyen explores a diplomatic middle ground, EU member states are charting their own courses. France is engaging in joint naval exercises with the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific, a move certain to provoke Beijing, while President Emmanuel Macron is reportedly planning a visit to China later this year. In Germany, Merz has adopted a more hardline stance against both China and the U.S., criticizing Trump’s governance and warning of Beijing’s authoritarian ambitions.
The coming weeks promise a flurry of diplomatic activity. EU leaders hope to engage with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at an AI Summit in Paris, while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas will have her first encounter with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference. Kallas, known for her strong stance against Russia, may find herself walking a fine line in her interactions with Beijing.
As the EU navigates this complex geopolitical landscape, one thing is clear: Brussels is no longer content to be a passive player in the power struggles between the U.S. and China. Whether von der Leyen’s latest approach represents pragmatism or strategic ambiguity remains to be seen, but the EU’s desire to assert its own interests in this “hyper-transactional” era is stronger than ever.