- Strategic Balancing Act: Israel maintains strong ties with Russia while preserving its US alliance, securing key military and diplomatic advantages.
- Trump-Putin Influence: A second Trump presidency could reshape Israel’s Russia strategy, opening new diplomatic channels.
- Managing Iran & Hezbollah: Israel leverages Russian influence to contain regional threats.
- Abraham Accords Expansion: Russia’s regional ambitions could play a role in furthering Arab-Israeli normalization.
Israel has consistently pursued a policy of strategic ambiguity regarding Russia. Even after the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when most Western nations implemented comprehensive sanctions, Israel chose a more calibrated response and maintained working relations with Russia. This diplomatic balancing act is a testament to Israel’s realpolitik and its ability to navigate an increasingly polarized world order.
The Israeli government argued that this position was due to practical security considerations—particularly Russia’s significant military presence in Syria, where Israel regularly conducts operations against Iranian-linked targets—rather than ideological alignment with Moscow. But beyond the immediate security rationale, Israel’s calculated engagement with Russia is producing significant geopolitical dividends.
How Israel Maintains Strong Ties with Russia
Despite mounting international pressure, Israel has avoided alienating Moscow. This has been achieved through several key diplomatic maneuvers:
- Avoiding Direct Condemnation – Unlike its Western allies, Israel has refrained from imposing strict sanctions on Russia, instead offering humanitarian aid to Ukraine while maintaining a neutral stance in UN resolutions condemning Russia.
- Military Coordination in Syria – Israel continues to conduct airstrikes against Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria, with tacit Russian approval. Moscow’s military control over Syrian airspace makes Russian cooperation indispensable.
- Strategic Diplomacy – High-level Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military secretary, have engaged in direct talks with Moscow, lobbying for the preservation of Russian military bases in Syria to counterbalance Turkish and Iranian influence.
- Mediating Between East and West – By maintaining an open channel with Moscow, Israel has positioned itself as a valuable diplomatic intermediary for Western nations seeking leverage with Russia.
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The Benefits of Strengthening Relations with Russia
Israel’s engagement with Russia is not merely about avoiding direct conflict in Syria—it is yielding significant strategic advantages:
- Maintaining Regional Stability – Russian control over Syrian airspace ensures Israel can continue targeting Iranian military expansion without direct Russian interference.
- Countering Iranian Influence – By keeping diplomatic ties open, Israel has an opportunity to drive a wedge between Moscow and Tehran, an alignment that has been a significant concern for Israel.
- Economic and Energy Benefits – Russia remains a global energy powerhouse. Israel’s pragmatic stance ensures it maintains access to key energy markets and trade opportunities.
- Hedging Against American Withdrawal – With uncertainty surrounding the US’s future role in the Middle East, Israel’s diversified alliances—including with Russia—serve as a crucial hedge.
The Trump Factor: A New Dynamic in US-Israel-Russia Relations
With Donald Trump’s expected return to the White House, this dynamic is poised to evolve further. Both the US and Israel are signaling an openness to engage with Russia, despite significant underlying tensions. This shift is expected for several reasons:
- Trump’s Non-Confrontational Approach to Russia – Unlike the Biden administration, Trump has historically advocated for a more cooperative relationship with Putin. If this trend continues, Israel will find itself in a stronger position to openly engage with Russia without facing US backlash.
- Shifting US Priorities – Trump’s foreign policy focus will likely pivot toward countering China rather than prioritizing a confrontation with Russia. This shift aligns with Israel’s interests.
- Potential Realignment in the Middle East – A second Trump presidency may encourage deeper coordination between Russia and Israel, particularly in containing Iran and neutralizing Hezbollah and Hamas.
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Can Russia Bring Iran and Israel Together? A Perspective
On the surface, the idea of Russia facilitating an Israel-Iran rapprochement seems unlikely. Moscow has historically maintained strong ties with Tehran, supporting its nuclear program and providing military aid. However, geopolitical realities create the possibility of a recalibration.
- Russia’s Interests in the Middle East – While Russia and Iran have been allies in Syria, Moscow is not bound to Tehran. Russian strategic interests sometimes clash with Iran’s aggressive expansionism.
- Moscow as a Potential Mediator – If Russia believes that restraining Iranian aggression could secure its influence in Syria without jeopardizing its broader regional interests, it may use its leverage to moderate Iranian behavior toward Israel.
- Economic Considerations – With Russia increasingly isolated due to Western sanctions, it may seek stronger economic ties with Israel, a technologically advanced economy, in ways that could pressure Iran to dial back its hostility.
Can Israel Control Hamas and Hezbollah Through Russia and Iran? A Future Outlook
Israel’s ability to influence Hamas and Hezbollah through Moscow and Tehran depends on three key factors:
- Russia’s Leverage Over Hezbollah – Russia has tolerated Hezbollah’s presence in Syria but has also imposed limits on its operations when they interfere with Russian objectives. If Israel can offer Moscow strategic incentives, Russia could exert pressure on Hezbollah to reduce its military aggression against Israel.
- Iran’s Calculations – If Moscow pushes Iran to scale down its support for Hezbollah in exchange for maintaining influence in Syria, Israel could benefit from a reduced security threat.
- Trump’s Role – With Trump in power, Israel may have more freedom to negotiate a regional security framework involving Russia, which could limit Iran’s reach in Lebanon and Gaza.
The Abraham Accords and the Middle East’s Future
The Abraham Accords were a watershed moment for Israel, bringing it into open diplomatic and economic cooperation with several Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. However, Russia’s role in the evolving regional landscape cannot be ignored:
- Russia’s Growing Ties with Gulf States – The UAE and Saudi Arabia have maintained strong ties with Moscow, particularly in energy cooperation through OPEC+. If Israel deepens its ties with Russia, it could benefit from this trilateral relationship.
- A Potential Russian Role in Expanding the Accords – Given its influence in Syria and ties to key Middle Eastern players, Russia could play a role in brokering further Arab-Israeli normalization.
- Balancing Act in a Multi-Polar World – Israel’s pragmatic diplomacy, engaging Russia while deepening ties with Arab states, positions it as a key player in an increasingly multipolar global order.
Trump, Putin, Israel, UAE, and the Future of the Abraham Accords
The evolving political landscape suggests that Israel’s diplomatic calculations must factor in the likely return of Trump, Putin’s long-term geopolitical ambitions, and the ongoing influence of the UAE in the Abraham Accords.
- Trump and the UAE – Under Trump, the UAE strengthened its economic and security partnerships with Israel. A second Trump term could see further normalization efforts, with Russia potentially playing a stabilizing role.
- Putin’s Middle East Vision – Russia views the Middle East as a crucial geopolitical arena. If Putin can position Russia as a broker between Israel and Arab states, it could shift regional alliances.
- Israel’s Expanding Regional Role – With Iran as a common threat, Israel, the UAE, and potentially Russia may find common ground in containing Tehran’s influence while expanding economic cooperation.
Conclusion: Israel’s Diplomatic Chess Mastery
Israel’s approach to Russia demonstrates masterful strategic balancing. While maintaining a strong alliance with the US, Israel has adeptly preserved its relationship with Moscow, ensuring critical security, economic, and diplomatic advantages. As Trump’s return to the White House looms, Israel’s ability to navigate these shifting geopolitical currents will become even more significant.
By leveraging Russia’s presence in Syria, maintaining dialogue with Moscow, and capitalizing on the Abraham Accords, Israel is securing its national interests in a volatile Middle East. Whether this delicate balancing act can extend to influencing Iran’s posture toward Israel remains to be seen, but the prospects for leveraging Russian influence to weaken Israel’s adversaries are stronger than ever.
In a rapidly changing world, Israel is proving that diplomatic pragmatism, rather than ideological rigidity, is the key to long-term national security and geopolitical success.