- Pakistan welcomes Iran’s offer to mediate escalating tensions with India after the Pahalgam attack.
- Islamabad invites Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian for a state visit amid rising cross-border strain.
- Pakistani forces remain on high alert to retaliate against any Indian military adventurism.
- Global experts, including India’s Pravin Sawhney, warn against India risking a war it cannot win.
- China reaffirms full support to Pakistan with promises of technological and military cooperation.
Tensions between Pakistan and India have escalated sharply following the tragic Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, but diplomatic channels remain active, with Pakistan welcoming Iran’s offer to mediate between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
In a significant development, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Saturday evening, during which he welcomed Tehran’s readiness to help reduce tensions. Islamabad has also extended a formal invitation to the Iranian president for a state visit, signalling its preference for diplomatic dialogue over confrontation. Sources confirmed that New Delhi, too, has quietly approached Iran, seeking assistance in preventing the situation from spiralling into an open conflict.
Pakistan Forces Standby
Despite these diplomatic overtures, Pakistan remains on high alert. Military sources have confirmed that Pakistan’s armed forces are on standby to respond decisively to any Indian military adventurism. A senior Pakistani official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said, “While Pakistan welcomes peaceful resolution efforts, it remains fully prepared to retaliate against any act of aggression.”
The April 22 attack in Pahalgam, which resulted in the deaths of 26 people, mostly tourists, has been described as the deadliest assault in Kashmir in over two decades. Responsibility was allegedly claimed by a little-known group, The Resistance Front (TRF). India was quick to imply cross-border links, an allegation Pakistan has categorically denied.
Global experts have warned India against pursuing an aggressive path. In a widely circulated interview with The Wire’s Arfa Khanum Sherwani, Indian defence analyst Pravin Sawhney offered a sober assessment of the situation. Sawhney warned that India lacks the strategic capacity to initiate and sustain a conflict with Pakistan, especially under the current regional dynamics where China has emerged as a key stakeholder.
According to Sawhney, Beijing has reiterated its commitment to assist Pakistan militarily if tensions escalate. China’s backing, he noted, would likely involve providing Pakistan with cutting-edge information technology and advanced weaponry. Moreover, Sawhney pointed out that despite Indian claims of normalcy in Kashmir, the region remains a volatile war zone, and India has failed to achieve any decisive victories against Pakistan in past conflicts, with the ceasefire line still largely unchanged since 1949.
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Since the Pahalgam incident, both countries have unleashed a series of retaliatory measures. India announced the suspension of the crucial Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark agreement regulating water sharing between the two countries. In response, Pakistan threatened to put the Simla Agreement of 1972 in abeyance and moved towards closing its airspace to Indian flights—a move that could deal a significant economic blow to Indian airlines.
Cross-Border Gunfire Along LOC
Further reports of cross-border gunfire along the Line of Control (LoC) have added to fears of miscalculations leading to full-blown conflict. While the exchanges have so far remained limited, the risk of escalation remains dangerously high, analysts warn.
Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC) met in Islamabad earlier this week and outlined a robust response strategy. According to insiders, Pakistan views India’s reaction to the Pahalgam incident as dangerously provocative. The NSC’s declaration, treating India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty as an “act of war,” underlines Islamabad’s firm stance.
Economically, Pakistan has already moved to suspend the Afghan transit trade for Indian goods, cutting off a vital route used by New Delhi to access Central Asia. The strategic leverage Pakistan holds over regional connectivity was once again demonstrated, recalling the fallout from the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis, but this time with even more sweeping economic repercussions.
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Experts note that while India’s military expenditure dwarfs Pakistan’s—$81 billion compared to Islamabad’s $11 billion—raw numbers obscure the real strategic dynamics. Pakistan’s doctrine of credible minimum deterrence, rapid mobilization, and asymmetrical warfare remains potent. The cohesion between Pakistan’s civil and military leadership, especially under Army Chief General Asim Munir, is seen as a key strength in countering any Indian adventurism.
General Asim Munir Factor
General Munir, who has spearheaded key modernization initiatives within Pakistan’s armed forces, commands significant respect within the ranks and has emphasized operational readiness across all theatres. Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence capability, coupled with strategic partnerships, particularly with China, adds another layer of complexity to any Indian calculations.
Moreover, Pakistan’s leadership has demonstrated diplomatic agility. The invitation to the Iranian president signals Islamabad’s intent to create a broader regional consensus against escalation. Iran’s involvement could be pivotal, given its unique diplomatic positioning and influence in both Islamabad and New Delhi.
While hawkish elements in India have called for punitive action against Pakistan, saner voices within the international community have urged restraint. The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres issued a statement expressing deep concern and called on both sides to exercise maximum restraint, underlining the catastrophic consequences of conflict between nuclear powers.
For Pakistan, the stakes are existential. Any tampering with the Indus River system, upon which Pakistan’s agricultural economy and drinking water supply depend, is viewed not just as aggression but as an existential threat. Islamabad has made it clear that attempts by India to divert or obstruct river flows would be met with a “full-spectrum response.”
Meanwhile, public sentiment in Pakistan remains defiant but cautious. While there is overwhelming support for a strong response to any Indian provocation, there is also recognition of the heavy costs associated with conflict.
The situation in Kashmir itself remains a tinderbox. Despite Indian assertions of normalcy, international observers and human rights organizations continue to report a heavy military presence, suppression of civil liberties, and widespread discontent among the local population.
The reality remains stark: both India and Pakistan possess significant nuclear arsenals, and any misstep could have catastrophic regional and global consequences. Analysts argue that the international community, particularly powers like China, Russia, and the United States, must play a more active role in facilitating dialogue before the situation spirals further out of control.
For now, diplomacy is still on the table. The coming days, particularly the Iranian mediation initiative and Pakistan’s evolving countermeasures, will determine whether South Asia moves towards renewed dialogue—or towards another perilous chapter of confrontation.
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A subtle analysis by a veteran analyst, with global approach and pointed lenses.