- U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities caused only partial damage, setting the program back by less than six months, according to a classified intelligence report.
- Iran had moved much of its enriched uranium prior to the strikes, preserving its capacity to restart the program quickly.
- Both Iran and Israel are claiming victory as a fragile ceasefire takes hold, while backchannel diplomacy begins to gain traction.
- President Trump to address NATO summit today, focusing on the Iran nuclear deal and Ukraine war, amid pressure to pursue renewed talks with Tehran.
Despite a barrage of American and Israeli airstrikes aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, a preliminary classified U.S. intelligence assessment has concluded that Iran’s nuclear program has only been set back by a few months — far short of the Trump administration’s stated goal of obliteration. The findings, confirmed by multiple U.S. and Israeli defense officials, could accelerate Washington’s push to bring Iran back to the negotiating table, especially as President Trump prepares to address NATO leaders today in the Netherlands.
The five-page report by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), shared with top officials and expected to be briefed to lawmakers later this week, states that while key entrances to Iran’s Fordo and Natanz nuclear sites were sealed off by 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs, the core underground facilities remain structurally intact. At Isfahan, where centrifuge components are manufactured, moderate damage was reported. However, U.S. intelligence believes Iran successfully relocated much of its enriched uranium stockpile prior to the strikes, potentially to hidden or covert sites.
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The bombings, coordinated over two days with Israeli air support, were intended to deliver a fatal blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. President Trump, in a statement issued mid-flight to the NATO Summit, declared, “It was my great honor to Destroy All Nuclear facilities & capability, and then, STOP THE WAR!”
But that claim appears exaggerated.
According to one U.S. official familiar with the report, “The strikes delayed Iran’s bomb-making ability, but not by more than six months — and maybe less. The infrastructure is bruised, not broken.” The official, who requested anonymity to discuss classified findings, added that Iran had long prepared for such a scenario by constructing redundancies and possibly maintaining covert enrichment facilities.
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Some Israeli intelligence officials echo this caution. “There is no evidence that Fordo was destroyed,” one said, referring to the facility buried more than 250 feet under solid rock. “And we suspect the regime has fallback options.”
The limited impact of the strikes has already rekindled debate in Washington. While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has insisted the operation “obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons,” General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was more circumspect at a press briefing Sunday. “It’s too early to assess how much of Iran’s nuclear program remains,” he said. “The final damage report is pending.”
Importantly, Iran’s response to the strike has not been belligerent. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in a phone call with the UAE’s ruler on Tuesday, said Iran was ready to “resolve issues at the negotiating table and within international frameworks.” This marks the first public indication of Tehran’s willingness to re-engage diplomatically since the war erupted nearly two weeks ago.
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The urgency to resume talks comes amid a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered in part by Qatar, which appears to be holding — for now. Both nations have declared victory. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu lauded the strikes’ precision, while Iran framed its “resilience” as a triumph. Still, tensions remain high after skirmishes continued into early Tuesday morning, with both sides accusing the other of ceasefire violations.
President Trump, who has privately expressed frustration over media reports downplaying the strike’s effectiveness, is expected to rally NATO allies behind a renewed strategy at today’s summit. He will speak about the Iran nuclear deal’s future and ongoing support for Ukraine amid its war with Russia.
Meanwhile, Democrats in Congress are demanding more transparency. Senator Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, emphasized Tuesday, “We still await final battle damage assessments. Let’s not get ahead of the facts.”
Former CENTCOM Commander Gen. Joseph Votel noted, “I have confidence in the weapons systems, but it’s not surprising some elements survived. That’s why we do damage assessments.”
The intelligence report suggests that Iran still retains the technical knowledge, uranium stockpiles, and infrastructure to rebuild its program — possibly within months. This means the United States will need to combine military pressure with diplomacy if it hopes to avert a renewed nuclear standoff in the region.
What Comes Next:
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President Trump is expected to use today’s NATO summit to press allies to re-engage with Iran diplomatically while maintaining military readiness.
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The Senate and House will receive classified briefings later this week on the strike’s impact.
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Iran’s signaling toward diplomacy could open the door for indirect talks, possibly via Qatar or Oman.
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Military analysts warn that if Iran accelerates covert enrichment, a second strike might be on the table — though politically riskier.
For now, the Middle East holds its breath. The war has paused, but the nuclear question remains unresolved.