- Mass Evacuation Underway: The U.S. and European nations are rapidly withdrawing diplomats and military families from Iraq and the Gulf region amid fears of imminent conflict.
- 300-Jet Airstrike Plan Activated: The Pentagon has finalized plans for a large-scale assault on over 120 Iranian proxy targets inside Iraq, awaiting only a trigger event.
- Israel’s Red Line Breached: With Iran nearing nuclear breakout, Israeli leaders have signaled readiness to strike, potentially igniting a broader regional war.
- Oil, Security at Risk: Global energy markets are bracing for shock as commercial shipping is warned of military escalation across the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
The United States and its European allies have begun a discreet but urgent evacuation of diplomats from Iraq as tensions with Iran escalate to dangerous levels. Behind the scenes, preparations for a potentially massive aerial strike campaign involving up to 300 American warplanes are nearing completion. According to senior military and intelligence officials, the United States is poised to strike Iranian-backed militias in Iraq within hours if war erupts between Israel and Iran.
What started as a stalled diplomatic effort to curb Iran’s nuclear program has now tipped dangerously close to military confrontation. As Washington withdraws its diplomats and authorizes the voluntary departure of military dependents from the broader Middle East, officials are signaling that the region could be days—or even hours—away from a new war, with Iraq once again in the crosshairs.
In private briefings this week, defense planners outlined a sweeping operation targeting Iranian proxy networks embedded across Iraq. Code-named “OpScythe,” the strike plan would unleash a fleet of F-35 stealth fighters, B-2 bombers, F-15E Strike Eagles, and MQ-9 drones against over 120 locations, from weapons caches in Anbar to command centers in Baghdad and Basra. Air support would be coordinated from U.S. carriers in the Arabian Sea and forward bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan.
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A senior official at U.S. Central Command confirmed that “final-stage target packages” have been approved, and aircraft are already in launch-ready status. “The level of force prepared for this operation eclipses anything the region has seen since 2003,” said the official. “We are not looking to start a war, but we are ready to finish one quickly if it starts.”
Ahmed Quraihi, prominet expert on The Middle East Affairs told The Islamabad Telegraph that there’s little doubt that the US has massive military hardware deployments in the region as tensions rise over Iran’s nuclear program.
Iraqi media reported increased overnight military aircraft activity over Iraqi cities. There’s little doubt that the US has massive military hardware deployments in the region as tensions rise over Iran’s nuclear program.
AHMED QURAISHI
The sudden escalation follows growing threats from Israeli leaders who say Iran’s nuclear enrichment has crossed a red line. Intelligence assessments shared with Washington indicate Tehran is now just weeks away from stockpiling enough weapons-grade uranium to build a nuclear warhead. Israeli officials believe a narrow window remains to take out Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, and they have signaled that if the U.S. won’t act, they will.
President Donald Trump, speaking in a podcast released Wednesday, admitted he is “less confident” in the prospects of reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement. Earlier this week, he spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Though the White House has not released details, insiders say Trump did not oppose a possible Israeli strike on Iran, marking a significant shift from previous attempts to restrain Israeli action.
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On the diplomatic front, Iran reacted furiously to a joint resolution by the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany submitted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors. The resolution censures Iran for violating commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, warned that the move would “compel Iran to react strongly.” Tehran’s military leadership has also issued threats, with Defense Minister Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh declaring that all U.S. bases in the region would be legitimate targets in the event of war.
Iranian authorities have finalized their own response plan in anticipation of an Israeli attack. According to a senior Iranian official, Tehran’s military is prepared to launch hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel within hours of an initial strike. Simultaneously, Iran would activate its vast network of proxy forces across the Middle East—chief among them, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of Shia militias with deep ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Security sources believe these proxies have already been positioned for retaliatory action. Militias in Iraq have received shipments of short-range rockets and drones, likely smuggled from Iran, and may be tasked with targeting U.S. bases, supply convoys, and diplomatic facilities across the country.
In response, the State Department this week ordered the evacuation of nonessential staff from the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and consulates in Erbil and Basra. European embassies have followed suit. German and British diplomatic personnel are quietly being flown out under low-profile security arrangements. Simultaneously, the Pentagon authorized the voluntary departure of military families from bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, citing the deteriorating security climate.
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In a terse statement, U.S. Central Command emphasized the move was precautionary. “The safety and security of our service members and their families remain our highest priority,” it said. But officials familiar with the situation admit the evacuation is a signal that combat operations may be imminent.
British maritime authorities have also warned commercial shipping to avoid the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Strait of Hormuz—arteries vital to global oil transit. A public advisory issued by the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency urged vessels to exercise “heightened caution,” citing an “increased risk of hostile action.”
The crisis arrives at a time of deepening uncertainty for the global energy market. Iran and Iraq collectively supply nearly 7 percent of the world’s crude oil, and any disruption from military conflict could send prices soaring. U.S. crude jumped past $68 a barrel this week, a spike reminiscent of past Gulf flashpoints. Energy analysts warn that a full-scale conflict could push prices well above $90 per barrel and disrupt global supply chains for months.
Adding to the unease is the USS Carl Vinson, which has been patrolling the Arabian Sea with over 60 aircraft onboard, including F-35s. The Navy has not announced any change in posture, but sources say the carrier is on alert and has received “contingency engagement protocols” in the event of conflict with Iranian forces or their proxies.
Israel, which has already taken advantage of recent months to degrade Hezbollah and Hamas, views Iran’s growing nuclear capabilities as the last, unresolved threat to its long-term security. Last year, Israeli airstrikes damaged key Iranian air defense positions in Syria and Iraq, reducing Tehran’s regional deterrence. Officials in Tel Aviv now argue that they have a narrow window to act before Iran rebuilds those defenses and reaches full nuclear breakout capability.
Yet analysts are divided on whether Israel could deal a fatal blow to Iran’s nuclear program without U.S. support. “There’s only so much Israel can do with airpower alone,” said a former Mossad official. “Iran’s nuclear facilities are fortified, dispersed, and in some cases buried deep underground. A sustained U.S.-led air campaign is what Tehran truly fears.”
For Trump, the situation poses a political and strategic dilemma. Having promised not to lead the U.S. into another endless war in the Middle East, he now faces growing pressure from hawks in Washington and Tel Aviv. General Michael Kurilla, CENTCOM’s commander, told lawmakers earlier this week that he had presented Trump with “a range of options” for a kinetic strike, though Kurilla’s follow-up testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee was abruptly canceled without explanation.
Meanwhile, on the ground in Iraq, tension is palpable. In cities like Najaf, Karbala, and Baghdad’s Sadr City, pro-Iran militias have begun visible mobilizations. American diplomatic and military convoys have been rerouted or suspended altogether. A senior U.S. defense official described the situation as “one mistake away from open war.”
Ordinary Iraqis fear being caught between regional powers again. “If America bombs the militias, there will be chaos,” said Abdul Hussein al-Tamimi, a schoolteacher in Najaf. “The militias will attack Americans. Then there will be explosions, raids, and more death. Iraq will bleed again.”
It remains unclear whether last-minute diplomacy can pull the region back from the brink. The Vienna negotiations, once seen as the last hope for avoiding conflict, are now paralyzed. The IAEA vote expected Thursday could be the final trigger—either forcing Iran back to the table or setting off a chain reaction of retribution.
As American jets line up on runways across the Gulf and diplomats evacuate under cover of night, the signals are unmistakable. The Middle East is on the verge of a new war—one that may start with an Israeli strike, but whose epicenter will be Iraq.
And this time, Washington appears ready not just to respond—but to lead the fight.