• Russian troops capture Dachnoye, marking first confirmed advance into Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Ukrainian F-16 shot down, killing pilot and exposing vulnerabilities in Western air support.
• Putin’s forces now control over 113,000 sq km of Ukraine despite Western aid and sanctions.
• European support wanes, with signs of Ukraine fatigue growing across EU capitals.

As Russian troops tighten their grip on Ukrainian soil, advancing into the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region and claiming yet another village, the war that began in 2022 has reached a chilling new phase. What once seemed like a war of attrition has become a war of gains — for Russia.

The capture of Dachnoye, a small but strategically located village, marks the first Russian foothold in the Dnipropetrovsk region — a heartland previously considered more secure by Kyiv. Russian state media and pro-Kremlin war bloggers were quick to trumpet the gain, hailing it as a sign of unstoppable momentum. Though Ukrainian officials have not confirmed the loss, satellite intelligence and open-source mapping suggest a worrying trend: Moscow has seized nearly 950 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in just the last two months.

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In Moscow, confidence is growing. “We are not just defending — we are reshaping the map,” a senior Russian defense official told The Islamabad Telegraph under condition of anonymity. “Ukraine’s Western backers have grown tired. We sense it. And so does President Putin.”

F-16 Downed, Ukrainian Pilot Killed

This week, a symbolic and strategic blow struck Ukraine’s Western dreams when Russian air defense systems reportedly downed a U.S.-supplied F-16 fighter jet, killing the Ukrainian pilot. The aircraft, recently introduced as part of NATO’s effort to level the playing field in the skies, was targeted near the Zaporizhzhia front.

A Ukrainian air force official, speaking on background, confirmed the loss but disputed claims that it signaled a systemic vulnerability. “It was a tragic loss, yes. But not a defeat of our air power. We will keep flying,” he said.

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Russian analysts, however, interpreted the incident differently. “The downing of the F-16 shows that no matter the tech, the battlefield belongs to Russia now,” said Mikhail Barabanov, a military expert at Moscow’s Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. “Western weapons cannot compensate for Ukraine’s exhaustion and our superior battlefield integration.”

Is Russia Close to Victory?

From the ground in Donetsk, the sounds of artillery are unceasing. But there’s a new tone to the war — one less of desperation and more of consolidation. Russian forces now hold over 113,000 square kilometers of Ukraine, including Crimea, nearly all of Luhansk, and major portions of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Add to that swathes of Kharkiv, Sumy, and now Dnipropetrovsk, and the grim picture for Ukraine becomes clearer.

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“It’s the slow but sure absorption of eastern Ukraine,” said Col. (retd) Viktor Shevchenko, a Ukrainian defense strategist. “Unless the West escalates its involvement — not just with weapons but boots and commitments — the war may begin to look unwinnable for Kyiv.”

That assessment is echoed, quietly, in European capitals. Despite high-sounding pledges, military aid has slowed, with several EU nations citing munitions shortages, political fatigue, and budget constraints. German shipments have stalled. French President Macron, once a vocal supporter, has called for “realistic” diplomacy.

Did Europe Abandon Ukraine?

In Kyiv, the mood is shifting from steely resilience to wary disillusionment. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, once hailed across the West as a Churchillian figure, is now pleading for sustained support.

“There is a sense of betrayal,” said Oleksii Arestovych, a former presidential adviser. “We held the line, we bled, and we suffered — but now Europe speaks of ‘peace talks’ instead of victory. That sends a dangerous signal to Moscow.”

Indeed, Putin’s long game appears to be working. European voters, weary of energy prices and migration concerns, are pressing their governments to shift focus inward. Far-right parties sympathetic to Russia have gained ground in recent elections from Hungary to Germany.

A senior EU diplomat in Brussels privately admitted: “There’s Ukraine fatigue. We can’t say it publicly, but it’s real. Our unity is cracking.”

Putin’s Endgame?

In his latest speech, President Vladimir Putin was defiant and confident. He reaffirmed Russia’s conditions for peace: Ukraine must fully cede Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, which he insists are now part of Russia “forever.”

The West has called those demands “territorial extortion.” But Putin is betting that time, terrain, and Western division will ultimately favor him.

“Putin doesn’t need to take Kyiv. He only needs to break Europe’s will and carve a defensible buffer,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, chair of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. “He’s nearly done that.”

And if Russia holds these territories and forces a frozen conflict, Putin can declare victory at home — the protector of Russians and the slayer of NATO ambitions.

The View from the Ground

In Kharkiv, civilians dig trenches beside soldiers, preparing for what many believe is the next target. “We see the drones. We hear the tanks. We know they are coming,” said Dmytro, a 27-year-old former IT worker turned volunteer fighter.

In Moscow, the war is distant. Cafés are full, the metro gleams, and state media plays triumphant footage from the front. “Our boys are bringing peace and order to Russian lands,” a pensioner in Red Square tells this correspondent.

The contrast is stark — and telling.

A War Tilting Eastward

The war in Ukraine is not over. But the winds have shifted. Russia now holds vast swathes of territory, has advanced into new regions, and delivered psychological blows such as the F-16 shootdown. Ukraine’s Western allies are showing cracks, and Putin’s strategy of exhaustion is yielding results.

Defense analyst Mark Galeotti summed it up succinctly: “Putin’s not winning fast. But he’s winning smart.”

And unless Europe rediscovers its resolve — or the U.S. reengages decisively — Ukraine may soon find itself negotiating not for peace, but for survival.