The high-profile meeting between Netanyahu and Trump will be watched anxiously around the world. Not only does it mark a pivotal moment in efforts to de-escalate hostilities with Iran, but it could also shape the direction of Israel’s war in Gaza, which has ground on for nearly two years without a sustainable cease-fire.
Trump, speaking at the White House on Tuesday, projected optimism, telling reporters he hoped a breakthrough in Gaza could happen “sometime next week.” Netanyahu, for his part, will also meet senior Trump administration officials including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth — a signal that the Biden-era policy framework has been fully replaced by a Trump-led, hawkish realignment.
While the meeting will focus heavily on Gaza — where Israeli hostages remain in Hamas captivity, and humanitarian catastrophe deepens by the day — the future of Iran policy looms even larger.
Last month’s U.S. airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities marked one of the most aggressive American interventions in the Middle East in over a decade. Washington’s decision to directly target Iran, instead of acting solely through Israeli proxies, signals that the Trump administration is ready to stand with Israel militarily if Iran renews its nuclear program or escalates its regional ambitions.
This is a dangerous turning point. Iran has vowed revenge for the attacks on its nuclear program, and the cease-fire that followed those strikes is deeply fragile. Tehran’s regional allies, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Shiite militias in Iraq, have already threatened retaliation against American targets if Israel resumes major offensives in Gaza or if the United States expands its operations.
The Future Risks: Regional War Still on the Table
The July summit could therefore serve as a pivot between limited conflict and a catastrophic regional war. If Netanyahu presses ahead with a broader campaign to dismantle Hamas while ignoring Hamas’s demand for a permanent cease-fire, Gaza could once again ignite — drawing Iran back in through its militant proxies.
Iran, still reeling from the destruction of parts of its nuclear infrastructure, may judge that it has nothing more to lose and could escalate dramatically. There are credible fears among security analysts that Iran could accelerate uranium enrichment, perhaps even crossing a nuclear threshold within months, if it concludes that deterrence has failed.
In that scenario, Israel — emboldened by U.S. guarantees — might feel compelled to launch preventive strikes, pulling the region into a war on multiple fronts stretching from Gaza to Lebanon to the Gulf. The Trump administration’s willingness to deploy U.S. forces in defense of Israel could quickly turn a regional conflict into a major international confrontation.
Gaza: A Potential Breakthrough or a Political Gamble?
On Gaza, Netanyahu faces equally high-stakes choices. After two years of blockade and fighting, more than two million Palestinians remain under siege, while dozens of Israeli hostages continue to languish in Hamas captivity. Talks to broker a cease-fire have repeatedly failed, with Hamas demanding a total end to hostilities, and Netanyahu offering only a temporary truce pending Hamas’s disarmament.
Some analysts believe Netanyahu might now be ready to pivot toward ending the war, even at the cost of alienating far-right partners in his coalition. The joint Israeli-American strikes against Iran last month have given Netanyahu a potential “win” to present to his domestic base, possibly freeing him to compromise in Gaza.
President Trump has staked significant personal prestige on brokering a cease-fire deal. His public demand on social media — “MAKE THE DEAL IN GAZA. GET THE HOSTAGES BACK!!!” — shows the urgency he feels to claim a diplomatic victory before the 2026 midterms.
What to Watch in July
As the Trump-Netanyahu meeting approaches, several scenarios are in play. A durable cease-fire in Gaza would ease Palestinian suffering and lower tensions with Iran’s proxy militias, buying precious time to manage the broader regional crisis. Conversely, if the two leaders double down on destroying Hamas without a credible plan for civilian governance in Gaza, the cycle of war and retaliation could resume almost immediately.
In parallel, the shadow of Iran’s nuclear future will hang over every discussion. Whether Trump and Netanyahu coordinate a longer-term campaign against Iran, or settle for containment, will define the next decade of Middle East stability.
In short, this summit is not just another diplomatic photo-op. It is a pivotal moment that could either halt the slide toward a region-wide war, or push Israel, Iran, and the United States into the most dangerous escalation the Middle East has faced in a generation.