- AfD’s Historic Victory: The AfD’s breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt could produce Germany’s first far-right state government since World War II, challenging the long-standing Brandmauer against the party.
- Migration, policing and education could change: An AfD-led state government would have meaningful authority over migration enforcement at the state level, policing, schools and cultural policy, potentially bringing the party’s controversial agenda from opposition rhetoric into government.
- The impact would extend beyond Saxony-Anhalt: Even without controlling Berlin, an AfD government would reshape Germany’s political debate, intensify pressure on Friedrich Merz and raise questions about Germany’s approach to Russia, Ukraine, immigration and the country’s post-war democratic identity.
BERLIN — Germany has entered political territory that would have seemed unimaginable only a few years ago. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has delivered its most spectacular electoral performance since its creation, winning roughly 44% of the vote in Sunday’s Saxony-Anhalt election and leaving Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) a distant second. The CDU, which had dominated the state for years, fell to around 17–18%.
The AfD did not secure the absolute majority required to govern alone. But politically, the message from voters was unmistakable: Germany’s traditional centre-right has lost its monopoly over conservative voters, while the political firewall designed to keep the AfD permanently outside government is beginning to look increasingly difficult to sustain.
For Merz, this is more than a bad regional election. It is a direct challenge to his political authority.
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The chancellor built much of his political identity around restoring strength to Germany’s centre-right. Yet the party that promised to reclaim voters from the AfD has instead watched the AfD surge far ahead. The contradiction is becoming impossible to ignore. The question confronting the CDU is no longer whether AfD voters exist. It is whether Germany can continue governing while refusing to engage with the political force that increasingly represents them.
The answer may determine Merz’s future.
The firewall is under unprecedented pressure
For decades, Germany’s mainstream parties have maintained a political firewall, or Brandmauer, against the AfD. The argument was straightforward: Germany’s historical experience made cooperation with extremist forces unacceptable.
But democracy creates a difficult counter-question: how long can a party representing millions of voters be excluded from political power without creating an even deeper democratic backlash?
The Saxony-Anhalt result has made that question unavoidable.
READ MORE: After Far-Right Election Breakthrough, Germany’s Merz Faces Painful Dilemma
The AfD has won an extraordinary mandate, but still needs support or abstentions from other lawmakers to translate its electoral victory into executive power. Mainstream parties continue to reject cooperation. Yet the arithmetic of parliament could eventually force CDU lawmakers to choose between preserving the firewall and respecting the governing implications of the election.
That is precisely where Merz’s crisis begins.
If he orders the CDU to maintain the firewall at any cost, he risks alienating conservative lawmakers and voters who believe the party has become incapable of representing their priorities. If he allows Saxony-Anhalt CDU politicians greater freedom to deal with the AfD, he risks a rebellion inside his own party and potentially destabilizing his federal coalition.
Either way, the chancellor’s authority has been badly weakened.
What an AfD government would actually change
An AfD-led government in Saxony-Anhalt would not suddenly transform Germany’s foreign policy. The state cannot withdraw Germany from NATO, redesign relations with Washington or independently abandon the European Union.
But it could become an extraordinarily important political laboratory.
State governments have substantial responsibilities for policing, education, culture and administration. An AfD government could therefore demonstrate whether policies that have remained opposition slogans can be translated into executive decisions.
Migration would probably be the first battlefield.
AfD leader Ulrich Siegmund campaigned on a tougher deportation and “remigration” agenda, stronger restrictions on migration and a fundamentally different approach to cultural and educational policy. He has also promised to challenge what the AfD describes as Germany’s excessive embrace of progressive social politics.
If the AfD governs, voters will finally be able to judge those policies by results rather than campaign speeches.
That could either strengthen the party dramatically or expose weaknesses in its programme.
AFD’s Historic Victory: Germany’s Russia dilemma
The foreign-policy implications could nevertheless be substantial.
The AfD has consistently advocated a major reassessment of Germany’s Russia policy and has opposed substantial elements of military support for Ukraine. Its rise therefore challenges the strategic consensus that has dominated Berlin since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
An AfD state government could not independently rewrite Germany’s foreign policy. But it could strengthen the national political argument for a different relationship with Moscow.
That possibility is already alarming Germany’s security establishment, particularly because state governments possess important responsibilities concerning domestic security and policing. Critics fear that sensitive information could become vulnerable if AfD officials sympathetic to Russia obtain access to classified material.
Supporters of the AfD would counter that democratic legitimacy cannot permanently depend on whether security officials approve of an elected party.
That tension could become one of Germany’s defining constitutional arguments.
And then there is Donald Trump
Perhaps the most fascinating international consequence concerns Washington.
Donald Trump is likely to be pleased by the direction of Germany’s politics.
Trump has repeatedly challenged Europe’s political establishment, demanded that European governments spend more on their own defence and questioned aspects of America’s traditional security relationship with the continent. An AfD-led political force in Germany could be considerably more receptive to some of those arguments than the traditional German establishment.
The AfD’s opposition to large-scale support for Ukraine, criticism of European integration and demand for a more nationally focused German policy could align with several elements of Trump’s “America First” worldview.
That does not mean Berlin and Washington would agree on everything. Far from it. But Trump would have a very different interlocutor in Germany if the AfD eventually became part of the governing establishment.
For an American president seeking a less dependent Europe, a Germany prepared to question Brussels, rethink Ukraine policy and demand greater national sovereignty could represent a profound strategic shift.
Germany’s political future is now open
The greatest significance of Saxony-Anhalt is therefore not that an AfD government is guaranteed.
It is that the possibility has become real.
The firewall has stopped the AfD from governing, but it has not stopped the party from growing. Indeed, the more mainstream parties have attempted to isolate it, the more effectively the AfD has portrayed itself as the political voice of voters ignored by the establishment.
Sunday’s election suggests that strategy may have reached its limits.
Germany now faces a choice. It can continue attempting to keep the AfD outside government regardless of its electoral strength, or it can allow voters to test the party in office under Germany’s constitutional checks and balances.
For Merz, the danger is immediate. His party has been decisively outperformed by the force it promised to contain.
The AfD has not yet taken power across Germany. But after Sunday, Germany can no longer pretend that far-right government is an impossible future. It is now a political possibility moving steadily toward the centre of the national debate.