The Islamabad Telegraph spoke to Dr Richard A E North, leading British Defence Analyst on U.S-Israel-Iran war. Read his prediction below:
- The Iranian army must confront The IRGC if this is to end well.
- US and allies have control of the air which means they do not need to use the top of the range missiles which are in limited supply.
- Iranian Sleeper Cells in the USA and the west are the unknowable factor.
- The Kurds may rise up in four countries.
- People are not giving enough attention to Pakistan and Afghanistan next to Iran.
- Pakistan and India need to settle matters now or this can escalate way beyond present limits.
Will The Iranian military now fight The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRNG)?
Dr Richard A E North is the leading Defence Analyst in the UK. He states that what happens next in Iran depends on the Generals and Colonels in the Iranian military. Will they be prepared to take on the IRGC? Even if most of the ninety million Iranians support regime change, they must have some force with guns and bullets. As The Americans and allies decapitate the Iranian regime leadership through intelligence-led missile attacks, some armed Iranians must fight.
Dr North states that America and allies have now got control of the air. This means they no longer have to rely on the limited supply of their most sophisticated missiles. They can now employ lower-level technology which is in far greater supply.
- Trump humiliates Starmer deliberately. The USA and UK alliance has never been under greater threat.
- Trump threatens to end trade with Spain.
- The Dubai Dream may be over.
- Cyprus is the one to watch.
The unknowable factor is Iranian ‘sleeper cells’ in the USA and other countries such as the UK. In April 1912 when the Titanic sank, 1517 people died. It is still vividly remembered in the west. What happens if an Iranian operation kills over 15 000 people in one day? British military intelligence claim they have foiled over 20 IRNC operations in the last few years.
Dr North wrote ‘Ministry of Defeat: The British War in Iraq 2003-2009’ charting and analysing every British soldier’s death in Iraq. Many died because of inadequate equipment or equipment failure. He exposed the billions the UK Ministry of Defence wasted during the war. He started the campaign against using Snatch Land Rovers (purchased for use in patrolling Northern Ireland housing estates) in desert roads full of explosives.
- THE CCP will have to take out the Houthis because it cannot lose any more energy supply.
- Longterm this conflict can diminish The Gulf and Saudi Arab.
- The EU has been slow to move.
- Macron considering putting French nukes in other parts of the EU.
Dr North warns that the war in Iran can spread in several ways. The Arab states are furious they have been attacked and may try to march into Iranian territory. Pakistan and Afghanistan have had significant conflict. These nations border Iran. Pakistan and India may recommence their 2025 conflict. There could be a Kurdish uprising in Turkey, Syria Iran, and Iraq. The Kurds have long sought their own country.
After the strike: The danger of war in Iran
Dr North predicts that The CCP will have to confront The Houthis to guarantee their oil supplies. The world’s biggest manufacturing economy has lost supplies from Venezuela and Iran, and it cannot lose all Arab oil. The Dubai Dream may be over. The Gulf States and Saudi over the long term may decline as tourist destinations, tax exile locations, as well as business, travel, and retail hubs.
The British government has said that there are 300 000 British people in the Middle East requiring evacuation, but this does not tell the full picture. These are the rich, famous social media influencers. From cricket’s Freddie Flintoff to soccer managers and former players to actresses and models. They are communicating with tens of millions of people that they are powerless to escape the war zone, and in some cases that they are ‘scared.’
It is possible that the Saudi soccer World Cup in 2034 will not go ahead.
President Trump noted that The EU was slow to move but now France is sending strong military support. He was scathing about the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stating he was ‘no Winston Churchill.’ He was even more scathing of Spain and suggested he may ban all trade with the nation. Spain exports around $20 billion to the USA including olive oil.
Iran War Escalation Forces U.S. Embassy Closures as Europe Weighs Military Response
Dr North worked in Brussels 1999 to 2004 when he set up the website eureferendum.com which led to the 2016 Brexit referendum. He co-wrote the Booker column for The Sunday Telegraph. Booker and North wrote ‘The Great Deception: A Secret History of the EU’ in 2003 and this is considered the sacred text of British euroscepticism. He now has the website, ‘Turbulent Times’.
He believes that Cyprus is the place to watch if oil and gas supplies become scarce. The competing claims of Turkey and The Greek Cypriots to sovereignty of the island and its Mediterranean gas reserves may lead to conflict.