- Pakistan India water dispute intensifies after abrupt variation in Chenab River flow
- India accused of violating the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty without prior notification
- Pakistan warns water manipulation threatens food, economic, and national security
- Analysts fear future Pakistan-India conflict could erupt over control of water resources
Pakistan has formally sought a clear explanation from India following what it describes as an abrupt and unilateral variation in the flow of the Chenab River, raising fresh alarm over the future of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and the growing risk that water—rather than territory—could ignite the next Pakistan-India war.
Speaking during the Foreign Office’s weekly press briefing on Thursday, FO spokesperson Tahir Hussain Andrabi said Pakistan viewed the sudden changes in Chenab’s flow “with extreme concern and seriousness,” warning that any manipulation of river waters without prior notification constituted a direct violation of the Indus Waters Treaty—one of the world’s most enduring international water-sharing agreements.
The Day Pakistan Downed Six Indian Jets Including Rafael—and Launched China’s Global Fighter Jet Era
“Our Indus Water Commissioner has written to his Indian counterpart seeking clarification in accordance with the procedures enshrined in the Indus Waters Treaty,” Andrabi said, underlining that Pakistan had activated proper diplomatic and legal channels, rather than resorting to unilateral escalation.
Water as an Existential Security Issue
Under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, Pakistan was granted rights over the western rivers—Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum—while India retained control over the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. The treaty contains no provision for unilateral suspension, a point Pakistan has repeatedly stressed since India announced in April that it was holding the agreement “in abeyance” following the Pahalgam incident in occupied Kashmir—an attack New Delhi blamed on Islamabad without presenting evidence.
READ MORE: Indian military chief acknowledges loss of fighter jets in May conflict with Pakistan
Any interference with Chenab’s flow, particularly during a critical agricultural cycle, strikes at the heart of Pakistan’s food security, rural livelihoods, and economic stability. Agriculture employs nearly 38% of Pakistan’s workforce and relies heavily on predictable river flows from the Indus Basin.
ALSO READ: After Triumph Over India, Asim Munir Redefines Pakistan’s Power Doctrine
Analysts warn that even short-term disruptions can cascade into crop losses, inflationary pressures, and social unrest.
“This is not merely a technical water dispute,” one Islamabad-based strategic analyst noted. “For Pakistan, water is an existential resource. Any attempt to weaponise it is viewed through a national security lens.”
Treaty Law, International Norms, and Legal Backing
Pakistan’s position is reinforced by international law. The Foreign Office has cited violations of both the Indus Waters Treaty and the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, which prohibits unilateral suspension of binding international agreements.
Significantly, in June, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) issued a Supplemental Award of Competence, affirming that India cannot unilaterally hold the treaty in abeyance. The ruling stemmed from a case Pakistan filed in 2023 challenging the design of Indian hydropower projects on rivers allocated to Pakistan.
“The Indus Waters Treaty has long been an instrument of peace and stability in South Asia,” Andrabi said. “Violating it threatens not only regional peace but the inviolability of international treaties and compliance with international law.”
From Airspace to Waterways: Shifting War Calculus
Analysts increasingly argue that while Pakistan and India have fought wars over territory and sovereignty, the next conflict—God forbid—may centre on water control, a scenario some describe as the “mother of all wars.”
Pakistan and India have fought multiple wars since 1947, with the most recent military confrontation in May this year bringing the two nuclear-armed neighbours to the brink. Pakistani officials and analysts maintain that during that escalation, Pakistan downed several Indian fighter jets, a claim New Delhi disputes but which nonetheless reshaped regional deterrence calculations.
Since then, Pakistan has undertaken sweeping reforms of its military command structure, placing the Army, Navy, and Air Force under a unified command headed by an officer of the rank of Field Marshal. According to defence analysts in Pakistan and abroad, the restructuring is designed to enable rapid, integrated decision-making during emergencies, including scenarios involving critical infrastructure and water security.
“This move has given Pakistan a clear operational edge,” said a former regional defence attaché familiar with South Asian militaries. “Indian authorities are acutely aware of it.”
Ready for Peace, Prepared for Conflict
Islamabad continues to emphasise that it seeks peaceful resolution through dialogue and legal mechanisms, not confrontation. Yet the message from the Foreign Office was unequivocal: Pakistan will not compromise on its sovereign and existential water rights.
“The international community must take notice of India’s continued disregard of a bilateral treaty,” Andrabi said, calling on global actors to counsel restraint and responsibility.
The subtext is unmistakable. Pakistan remains committed to peace—but is fully prepared to defend its water lifelines if diplomacy fails. In a region already burdened by climate stress, population growth, and historical mistrust, the Chenab dispute is a stark reminder that water has become the new frontline in South Asian geopolitics.