- Immediate Focus on Russia-Ukraine War: Kaswar Klasra, Editor-in-Chief of The Islamabad Telegraph, believes Trump’s first move will be to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine, aligning with Trump’s campaign promise to end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office.
- Tougher Stance on China: Trump is expected to intensify his tariff policies on China, potentially raising tariffs up to 60% on Chinese imports. His hardline approach prioritizes U.S. economic leverage over diplomatic engagement, straining U.S.-China relations.
- Skepticism Towards Multilateral Alliances: Trump’s previous skepticism of NATO and multilateral institutions has European leaders concerned. Analysts predict he might push Europe harder on tariffs, weakening the G7 and undermining international alliances.
- Potential Global Disruption: Analysts warn Trump’s assertive approach may disrupt international cooperation, emboldening rivals like Russia, pressuring allies, and creating challenges in managing trade and security alliances across Europe and Asia.
With his re-election, Donald Trump has returned to the White House, stirring up speculation about the potential changes he might bring to the international arena. Trump’s pledge to quickly end the Russia-Ukraine war and his contentious views on U.S.-China relations are already sparking debate across political circles.
Kaswar Klasra, Editor-in-Chief of The Islamabad Telegraph, Asia’s leading publication on foreign policy, predicts that Trump’s immediate priority will be to broker peace between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “Trump is going to put an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. This is the first thing he will do soon after taking oath,” Klasra told The Islamabad Telegraph.
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Trump made headlines during his campaign by vowing that he could end the war in a single day. “If I’m president, I will have that war settled in one day,” Trump stated. Although he has shared few details, Trump reiterated his plan to sit down with both Putin and Zelenskyy, confident that his unique approach could facilitate an end to the conflict. “They both have weaknesses and they both have strengths, and within 24 hours that war will be settled. It’ll be over,” he asserted.
Kaswar Klasra, Editor-in-Chief of The Islamabad Telegraph, Asia’s leading publication on foreign policy, predicts that Trump’s immediate priority will be to broker peace between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “Trump is going to put an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. This is the first thing he will do soon after taking oath,” Klasra told The Islamabad Telegraph.
The urgency in Trump’s rhetoric resonates with his long-standing criticisms of the Biden administration’s substantial financial and military support to Ukraine. Trump, who has maintained close ties with Putin, has been vocal about what he perceives as a “never-ending” cycle of U.S. aid to Ukraine. This position aligns with his June remarks, where he declared that he would resolve the conflict even before officially re-entering the White House. This approach, while dramatic, has raised questions among analysts and foreign policy experts about how Trump’s direct negotiation style would impact both Ukraine and Europe’s security.
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Leslie Vinjamuri, Director of the US and Americas Programme at Chatham House in London, notes that Trump’s approach should be taken “at face value.” She argues that he likely believes in his ability to forge a quick deal, possibly by halting or severely restricting further U.S. assistance to Ukraine.
Vinjamuri suggests that Trump’s diplomacy may involve concessions to Russia without significant input from Zelenskyy, which could result in territorial compromises unfavorable to Ukraine. “There’s also a question of what kind of relationship he would have with Putin and whether that would embolden Russia more generally in the European context – and I think that’s a real concern for a lot of people,” Vinjamuri told Al Jazeera.
Trump, China and the Economic Battleground
Beyond his stated ambitions in Eastern Europe, Trump’s second term is expected to see the resurgence of his tough stance on China. The rivalry between the U.S. and China has deepened in recent years, with trade, technology, and geopolitical influence at the heart of tensions. Under Trump’s previous administration, a series of tariffs on Chinese imports escalated into a full-fledged trade war that reverberated across the global economy. Trump’s prioritization of economic leverage over diplomatic dialogue made his approach to China markedly different from that of past administrations, who had often used bilateral meetings and multilateral coalitions to address issues.
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The International Crisis Group, a think tank focused on conflict resolution, describes Trump’s approach to China as fundamentally grounded in trade, often placing economic concerns above human rights and other diplomatic issues. During his 2018 presidency, he imposed tariffs on over $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, sparking a tit-for-tat response from Beijing. Trump, however, has emphasized that his policy yielded significant financial gains for the U.S.
“They took advantage of us. And why shouldn’t they, if we were stupid enough to let them do it?” he remarked in an interview with Fox News in August, highlighting what he described as “hundreds of billions” of dollars secured from China through his tariff policy.
In his campaign rhetoric this year, Trump has doubled down on tariffs, vowing to implement a blanket 10 percent tariff on all imports and threatening to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to as high as 60 percent. Joshua Kurlantzick, a senior fellow specializing in Southeast Asia and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, describes Trump’s stance as “more assertive” and “more aggressive” than before.
“While Trump in the first term was sort of able to be swayed a little bit by his relationship at times with Xi Jinping, we don’t really know what would happen now,” Kurlantzick told Al Jazeera, suggesting that while Trump’s rhetoric may be confrontational, his actual policy could shift based on practical considerations or relationships.
Trump Faces Challenges to Global Cooperation
In addition to his hardline stances on Russia and China, Trump has historically shown resistance to multilateralism, and his second term could deepen these tensions. During his first presidency, Trump withdrew the U.S. from international agreements like the Paris Climate Accord and voiced his disapproval of organizations such as the United Nations and NATO.
His opposition to NATO is particularly alarming for European nations, as he has previously suggested that NATO allies should pay a larger share of the costs for collective defense, hinting that the U.S. might not defend them in the event of a Russian attack. This stance on NATO, paired with a potential preference for unilateralism, has European leaders on edge.
Vinjamuri notes that Trump’s approach could have serious implications for the global order. “Trump creates an opportunity for those who want to take a wrecking ball to the multilateral order,” she commented. European nations, which have long benefited from cooperative forums like the Group of Seven (G7), are increasingly worried that Trump’s return could disrupt these alliances and shift U.S. policy in an isolationist direction.
“There are real concerns that Trump might push them harder on tariffs, on China, and be a very disruptive force to the G7,” Vinjamuri added, underscoring the fear that the U.S. might withdraw from or weaken its role in key international partnerships, leaving Europe to fend for itself in both economic and security matters.
Some analysts even speculate that Trump’s policies might reduce the G7 to a “G6,” should U.S. disengagement lead other member states to pursue independent or cooperative policies that bypass Washington’s leadership.
What Lies Ahead
As Trump prepares to return to the White House, his assertive stances on Ukraine, Russia, China, and multilateral organizations signal a potential departure from the established diplomatic norms of recent years. His confidence in swiftly negotiating peace between Russia and Ukraine, combined with his willingness to challenge China economically and question the structure of international alliances, makes his second term a period of anticipated upheaval.
For analysts like Kaswar Klasra, Trump’s belief in his capacity to end the Russia-Ukraine war may be genuine, though the implications of such a deal remain uncertain. Critics argue that such an abrupt diplomatic strategy could undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and weaken NATO’s unified stance against Russia. Meanwhile, Trump’s continued focus on China may risk triggering economic conflicts that could spill over into trade disputes affecting global markets.
One thing is clear: Trump’s second term will be anything but predictable. Whether his assertive strategies will bring about the desired outcomes or trigger unforeseen consequences, the world is watching closely as Trump resumes his role on the global stage