-
Kremlin confirms Putin–Witkoff talks ended with no breakthrough, but channels remain open for a future Trump Ukraine peace deal.
-
Trump believes he will end his ninth war, leveraging personal envoys and great-power bargaining outside traditional diplomacy.
-
Europe fears being sidelined by a Washington–Moscow settlement that may reward Russia and reshape NATO dynamics.
-
Despite disagreements, geopolitical exhaustion on all sides makes a 2026 peace framework more plausible than ever.
The five-hour, past-midnight Kremlin session between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump’s envoys — Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — ended with no deal, no breakthrough, and not even a symbolic gesture of progress. Russia’s veteran foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov did not pretend otherwise. “Compromises have not yet been found,” he admitted, underlining that Moscow objected to several U.S. proposals and that a Putin-Trump meeting was not on the horizon.
But failure at this stage does not mean the talks are collapsing. It means the real bargaining has just begun. And in Washington, one man remains convinced that he will eventually end this war: Donald J. Trump, who boasts of having ended eight conflicts already and is now positioning Ukraine as the ninth war he intends to close.
For Trump, this is not merely diplomacy. It is legacy-building. And for Europe, it is a geopolitical alarm bell.
A Failed Meeting That Still Matters
The optics were striking: Witkoff — a billionaire real estate developer and Trump confidant — and Kushner walking across Red Square toward the Kremlin, flanked by Soviet-era architecture and escorted through Lenin’s mausoleum toward the seat of Russian power. The symbolism was unmistakable: Trump is sending trusted loyalists, not conventional diplomats, to reshape one of the world’s deadliest conflicts.
Inside, however, the charm did not translate into results.
Putin pushed back on several American formulations, particularly over the “territorial problem” — shorthand for Russia’s claim to the entire Donbas. Ukraine still controls thousands of square kilometres in the region, and almost the entire world still recognises Donbas as Ukrainian territory.
READ MORE: Trump’s push to end Ukraine war raises fears of ‘ugly deal’ for Europe
The Kremlin called some U.S. proposals “more or less acceptable.” Others, Ushakov said bluntly, “are not suitable for us.”
On paper, the meeting failed. In practice, it opened a door — a narrow one, but still a door — for a negotiated end.
Trump’s Confidence: Ending Eight Wars, Targeting Number Nine
In Washington, Trump is publicly confident. In private, advisers say he is even more certain.
Eight wars, by his count, ended under his leadership. Ukraine, he believes, will be the ninth.
At a recent event, Trump framed the Ukraine conflict as a disaster caused by indecision, bureaucratic excess, and what he describes as weak leadership in Europe.
ALSO READ: U.S. Asylum Crisis: Trump Halts Afghan Visas and Freezes Refugee Decisions
“Our people are over in Russia right now to see if we can get it settled,” he said. “Not an easy situation… What a mess.”
To Trump, this is not an ideological contest. It is a negotiation — one where the United States and Russia, as “great powers,” can impose a settlement and then expect others, including Europe, to adjust.
That worldview terrifies European capitals.
Europe’s Anxiety: A Deal Made Without Europe
While Trump pushes forward, Europe watches from the sidelines — nervous, sidelined, and convinced that whatever deal Trump pursues will prioritize Washington-Moscow détente over European security.
European leaders fear three outcomes:
- Territorial concessions that reward Russian aggression.
- A U.S.-Russia economic partnership that undercuts European leverage.
- A NATO recalibration that signals declining American commitment.
Europe was already shaken when a leaked 28-point U.S. peace plan appeared to concede too much to Moscow. European diplomats lobbied fiercely, resulting in a revised roadmap. But the final decisions are being shaped in Washington and Moscow, not Brussels or Berlin.
The fact that Europe had no representatives at the latest Florida talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials, and none at the Moscow dialogue, is not lost on EU governments. As one senior diplomat put it: “We are being briefed on decisions after they are taken.”
This is not partnership — it is spectatorship.
Putin’s Posture: Playing Hardball While Sending Signals
Putin, meanwhile, is signaling confidence and threat in equal measure. Before meeting Witkoff, he warned Europe that if it initiated a war with Russia, “there would be no one left to negotiate with.” He insisted Russia does not want war with Europe — but he framed European behavior as increasingly hostile and provocative.
He also accused European governments of sabotaging Trump’s peace push by proposing terms “absolutely unacceptable” to Moscow, allowing them to claim that Russia is blocking diplomacy.
Putin’s message: I’ll negotiate with Trump — not Europe.
For a Russian leader who deeply values bilateral great-power dialogues, Trump’s approach is far more appealing than Europe’s multilateral pressure strategy.
Trump Ukraine Peace Deal And Ukraine’s Fear: Being Sidelined by Great-Power Bargains
President Zelenskiy, speaking in Dublin, expressed openly what Kyiv fears privately: that Washington could lose interest and cut a deal that sacrifices Ukrainian interests in exchange for a quick end to the conflict.
“It is important that everything is fair and open,” he said. “So there are no games behind Ukraine’s back.”
But the harsh reality is that in great-power negotiations, the smaller party rarely dictates the terms. Ukraine knows that if Washington and Moscow converge, Kyiv will have to accept the outcome — even if it opposes it.
The Strategic Reality: Why a Deal Is Still Possible
Despite rhetoric, threats, and public frustration, several factors make a future settlement — perhaps before mid-2026 — plausible:
- 1. Russia is exhausted.
Nearly four years of war, sanctions, and manpower losses have strained Moscow’s resources. - 2. Ukraine is dependent on external aid.
Without U.S. financial and military support, Kyiv cannot sustain current operations. - 3. Europe is divided and militarily underprepared.
EU members disagree on territory, sanctions, and postwar security guarantees. - 4. Trump wants the win.
A negotiated end to the Ukraine war would be a historic political trophy.
In diplomacy, convergence of interests matters more than convergence of values — and right now, multiple interests are pointing toward eventual compromise.
The Road Ahead: An “Ugly Deal” That Europe Will Hate but the World Will Accept
Luuk van Middelaar of the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics warned that “an ugly deal” is becoming increasingly inevitable. Not fair. Not ideal. Not even fully stable. But functional enough to stop the killing and reformat U.S.-Russia relations.
Europe fears such an arrangement because it undermines its strategic influence. Ukraine fears it because it may lose territory. Russia fears it because it will have to accept some constraints. And Trump’s team fears it could be politically toxic if framed as a “concession to Putin.”
Yet, such deals are how wars end. Never perfectly. Rarely cleanly. Almost always pragmatically.
The failed Witkoff–Putin meeting was not a setback.
It was Act One — the beginning of a high-stakes negotiation with enormous geopolitical consequences.
Trump thinks he can end his ninth war. Putin thinks he can get the best terms from Trump. Europe fears both.
And Ukraine knows that its fate, once again, lies in the hands of powers far bigger than itself.