A Ukraine Peace Deal ‘Extremely Close’ — Yet Still Out of Reach

U.S. officials insist a Ukraine peace agreement is “extremely close,” with President Donald Trump’s outgoing envoy declaring the effort “in the last 10 metres.” But senior Moscow insiders, speaking to The Islamabad Telegraph, caution that the Kremlin still seeks “additional guarantees and broader adjustments” to U.S. proposals — a sign that while the two sides are nearing a deal, critical differences remain unresolved.

This fragile moment, suspended between hope and deadlock, captures the geopolitical paradox of the conflict. Washington sees the outlines of an agreement. Moscow sees missing commitments. Europe watches in silence. And Ukraine — exhausted, confused, and bleeding — remains the conflict’s biggest casualty.

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A Deal Close in Theory, Complicated in Practice

U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg, set to step down in January, delivered the most optimistic assessment yet at the Reagan National Defense Forum. He argued that the negotiations have narrowed to just two unresolved issues:

1. The territorial future of Donbas, and

2. Control and operational status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, Europe’s largest.

“If we get those two issues settled, I think the rest will work out fairly well,” Kellogg said. “We’re really, really close.”

His confidence reflects the Trump administration’s urgency to conclude the war that has defined Trump’s second term. Trump, eager to cement his legacy as a “peacemaker president,” insists that resolving Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War Two is within reach — even if the diplomacy is now occurring through unconventional channels involving business ally Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner.

Yet Moscow sees the situation differently.

Ukraine peace deal And Moscow: Deal Possible, But U.S. Must Shift Its Position

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s four-hour meeting with Witkoff and Kushner last week was substantive, but not decisive. Putin’s top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, confirmed that the talks addressed “territorial problems,” the Kremlin’s shorthand for Russia’s claims over the entire Donbas region.

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While U.S. officials believe they have mostly aligned the framework for settlement, Ushakov says Washington must “make serious, radical changes” to its proposals before Moscow could sign anything. He did not specify which points need redrafting, but officials familiar with the Kremlin’s stance told The Islamabad Telegraph that Russia wants:

• Formal guarantees that Kyiv will not join NATO.
• Recognition of Russia’s expanded territorial control, including in Donbas.
• A long-term security clause limiting the scale and composition of Ukraine’s military.

These demands diverge sharply from what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is willing to accept.

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Kyiv: Confused, Cornered and Deeply Fractured

Zelenskiy said he held a “substantive” phone call with Witkoff and Kushner, but Kyiv is far from unified on what a workable peace could look like. Zelenskiy insists that giving up the rest of Donetsk without a referendum would be illegal and strategically suicidal, handing Russia a forward base for future assaults.

Yet military fatigue, population displacement, and economic collapse have pushed many Ukrainians toward a grudging openness to compromise — even if the political leadership cannot articulate what that compromise should be.

Behind closed doors, Ukrainian officials privately admit they feel confused and sidelined by the rapid U.S.–Russia backchannel diplomacy. The leaked set of 28 U.S. draft proposals — which appeared to concede key Russian demands — only deepened Kyiv’s anxiety and Europe’s anger.

Europe: A Silent Spectator with No Real Leverage

Europe, once the loudest voice urging military resistance, has become a quiet observer. Officials in Berlin, Paris, Brussels and Warsaw privately complain they have been cut out of negotiations. But with limited strategic leverage — and facing their own political upheavals — European governments are mostly watching events unfold from the sidelines.

There is deep fear in European capitals that Washington may accept a deal that effectively freezes Russian territorial gains, reshapes NATO’s eastern commitments, and locks Europe into a new security architecture dominated by U.S.–Russia power politics.

But Europe’s silence underscores a deeper truth: it is no longer steering this conflict’s diplomacy.

Human Cost: Ukraine’s Greatest Tragedy

While diplomats argue, the human toll continues to mount. Kellogg estimates more than 2 million casualties — dead and wounded — on both sides since the war began. Independent verification is impossible, but the scale of devastation is undeniable. Entire cities have been erased, millions displaced, and an entire generation traumatized.

The people of Ukraine, once promised integration with Europe and security through Western partnerships, have instead become the conflict’s greatest victims — trapped between Moscow’s demands, Washington’s ambitions, and Europe’s paralysis.

A Deal Approaches — But the Hardest Part Lies Ahead

The world may be closer to a peace agreement than at any time since Russia’s invasion began. But a deal “nearing” is not a deal completed. The final stretch is also the most politically explosive and diplomatically fragile.

For now, the war sits in a precarious space: not ending, but no longer impossible to end. Whether Washington and Moscow can close the remaining gaps — and whether Ukraine can live with the outcome — will define Europe’s future for decades.